Currently, Energy (XLE) is the only sector holding a rising Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO). The sector has been on fire as Crude Oil finally broke out. Overhead resistance isn't that far away for XLE or Crude so we have to wonder how much further it can go. For now with such positive indicators, we have to look for prices to move higher from here. The RSI is not overbought despite the lengthy rally. The PMO is positively configured. The Silver Cross Index is at a very high 73% and it is above its signal line so the IT Bias is BULLISH. The Golden Cross Index could read higher, but the decline really damaged it. It is above its signal line so the LT Bias is BULLISH. Participation of stocks above their 20/50EMAs is above 90% so there is strength here. Stochastics are holding above 80 indicating internal strength. We could see more rotation into this strong sector.
The weekly chart does show a sideways trading range and that could be the sticking point for XLE. Overhead resistance looks incredibly strong so upside potential may be somewhat limited. We do like the new weekly PMO Crossover BUY Signal which does seem to suggest that we'll at least reach overhead resistance.
The DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the Stock Market, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. The DecisionPoint Alert daily report (Monday through Thursday) is abbreviated and gives updates on the Weekly Wrap assessments.
Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on our YouTube channel here!
MARKET/SPX SECTOR/INDUSTRY GROUP INDEXES
Change Today: 
Change for the Week:
CLICK HERE for Carl's annotated Market Index, Sector, and Industry Group charts.
THE MARKET (S&P 500)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/4/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/16/2025
SPY 10-Minute Chart: The declining trend continues. The market did open higher, but steadily lost ground keeping the declining trend intact. The strong rally at the end of the day did bring the 10-minute PMO into a Crossover BUY Signal and Stochastics are on the rise so we could get a positive open on Monday.
SPY Daily Chart: Support keeps on holding at the May top and the 20-day EMA so we could be looking at a bull flag forming. However, we don't favor that conclusion given the PMO is beginning to put margin between it and its signal line as it travel lower.
The VIX remains below its moving average which implies weakness. Stochastics are falling fast, also indicating weakness.
SPY Weekly Chart: We must admit that the bullish "V" Bottom is compelling as is the rising weekly PMO on a Crossover BUY Signal. We do look for weakness near-term, but in the longer-term timeframe we should expect a move to all-time highs eventually.
New 52-Week Highs/Lows: Not much change in New Highs and New Lows. We aren't seeing strong weakness here, but neither are we seeing strength building. The High-Low Differential is still in decline.
Climax Analysis: There were no climax readings today. High SPX Total Volume is attributed to quarter-end options expiration.
*A climax is a one-day event when market action generates very high readings in, primarily, breadth and volume indicators. We also include the VIX, watching for it to penetrate outside the Bollinger Band envelope. The vertical dotted lines mark climax days -- red for downside climaxes, and green for upside. Climaxes are at their core exhaustion events; however, at price pivots they may be initiating a change of trend.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL.
We're still listing the Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) as "Neutral", but the STO-B is getting close to oversold territory. We think there is more weakness ahead so we don't really see these indicators as oversold yet. We have negative divergences on all indicators. We're below our 50% bullish threshold in participation and the percentage of rising PMOs. On the bright side, we did see expansion on %Stocks > 20EMA and %PMOs Rising.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL.
They haven't reached negative territory yet, but both the ITBM and ITVM are headed that direction. Negative divergences are clear on these indicators. %PMO Xover BUY Signals did not decline today, but it didn't rise either. Since we have 31% with rising PMOs, it is only vulnerable to losing one percentage point. Less than one-third hold PMO BUY Signals and that is far from bullish.
_______
PARTICIPATION TABLES: The following tables summarize participation for the major market indexes and sectors. The 1-Week Change columns inject a dynamic aspect to the presentation. There are three groups: Major Market Indexes, Miscellaneous Industry Groups, and the 11 S&P 500 Sectors.
Semiconductors (SMH) hold the highest IT Bias mainly because the Golden Cross Index is so low and they have seen quite a rally of late. They do look toppy right now so be careful with this group in this market.
Utilities (XLU) have the lowest IT Bias. The reason is due to the high Golden Cross Index which moved higher in the last intermediate-term rally. Since then it has been losing ground which is why the Silver Cross Index is so much lower. Things are getting worse given the loss of 9 percentage points on the SCI.
This table is sorted by SCI values. This gives a clear picture of strongest to weakest index/sector in terms of intermediate-term participation.
It is clear that Energy holds all the cards right now. XLE gained 19 percentage points this week on the SCI. We think it will move even higher.
Regional Banks (KRE) lost a huge 17 percentage points on the SCI. There is a declining trend there; it looks vulnerable.
This table is sorted by GCI values. This gives a clear picture of strongest to weakest index/sector in terms of long-term participation.
Gold Miners (GDX) are still holding up on the Golden Cross Index. The GCI is reading at 100%, but note that the SCI did lose ground this week. This is a very vulnerable group right now.
PARTICIPATION CHART (S&P 500): The following chart objectively shows the depth and trend of participation for the SPX in two time frames.
- Intermediate-Term - the Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on IT Trend Model BUY signals (20-EMA > 50-EMA). The opposite of the Silver Cross is a "Dark Cross" -- those stocks are, at the very least, in a correction.
- Long-Term - the Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on LT Trend Model BUY signals (50-EMA > 200-EMA). The opposite of a Golden Cross is the "Death Cross" -- those stocks are in a bear market.
The market bias is BEARISH in the intermediate term.
The market bias is BULLISH in the long term.
Participation indicators all show negative divergences and are trending even lower. They did expand slightly today on the decline, but readings aren't very healthy. The Silver Cross Index had a Bearish Shift this week, dropping it below its signal line. This is why the IT Bias is BEARISH right now. The Golden Cross Index did turn up today, but given we see almost the same amount of stocks above their 50/200-day EMAs, it isn't likely to rise much further. It is above its signal line so the LT Bias is BULLISH.
BIAS Assessment: The following table expresses the current BIAS of various price indexes based upon the relationship of the Silver Cross Index to its 10-day EMA (intermediate-term), and of the Golden Cross Index to its 20-day EMA (long-term). When the Index is above the EMA it is bullish, and it is bearish when the Index is below the EMA. The BIAS does not imply that any particular action should be taken. It is information to be used in the decision process.
The items with highlighted borders indicate that the BIAS changed today.
*****************************************************************************************************
CONCLUSION: Price is still holding above support so it isn't out of the question that we could see an upcoming rally, but indicators simply don't support a rally right now. The STOs/ITBM/ITVM are in decline and hold negative divergences with price. Participation did expand slightly, but we don't see that as enough to change our bearish outlook. The Bias Table above has really switched to red in the intermediate-term and that is yet another sign of weakness. The market should make its way lower, but it hasn't been cooperating. Regardless, we think we are finally at a tipping point.
Erin is 25% long, 0% short. (This is intended as information, not a recommendation.)
*****************************************************************************************************
CALENDAR
BITCOIN
Bitcoin Daily Chart: Bitcoin is in consolidation mode, forming a flag on a flagpole which is very bullish. However, indicators haven't warmed up and you could make a case for a bearish double top. We do expect Bitcoin with eventually break out again, but for now look for more consolidation with a melt lower. 100,000 is the confirmation line of the double top. Price will need to reverse at that level.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart: We definitely see the bull flag on the weekly chart. The weekly PMO has flattened, but is crossing over its signal line right now which could mean we will get the breakout from the flag.
BITCOIN ETFs
Today:
This Week:
INTEREST RATES
Yields are still trend lower overall. We are looking for them to reverse upward soon.
The Yield Curve Chart from StockCharts.com shows us the inversions taking place. The red line should move higher from left to right. Inversions are occurring where it moves downward.
10-YEAR T-BOND YIELD
Part of the reason that we are looking for yields to start rising again is this chart. We have a bullish falling wedge on $TNX that implies an upcoming breakout. The indicators aren't in line with this conclusion yet given the decline in both the PMO and Stochastics. We may see another trip to the bottom of the pattern before we get that breakout.
10-Year Bond Yield Weekly Chart: Currently we have a rising trend, but we also see a strong trading range. It tells us that upside potential could be limited. The weekly PMO is above its signal line and with the rising trends, we expect overhead resistance to be tested.
MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES (30-Yr)**
**We watch the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate, because, for the most part, people buy homes based upon the maximum monthly payment they can afford. As rates rise, a fixed monthly payment will carry a smaller mortgage amount, which shuts many buyers out of the market, and potential sellers will experience pressure to lower prices (to no effect so far).
--
This week the 30-Year Fixed Rate changed from 6.84 to 6.81.
Here is a 50-year chart for better perspective.
BONDS (TLT)
IT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/14/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 12/13/2024
TLT Daily Chart: We have a bearish rising wedge on TLT telling us to expect a breakdown. Today we did see a bullish hollow red candlestick so we could see another trip to the top of the pattern before a breakdown. The PMO is currently rising, as are Stochastics so a little more upside makes sense.
TLT Weekly Chart: We continue to monitor the longer-term bearish head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. This time around we did see a bounce off the neckline. The weekly PMO is trying to turn up. We will watch the declining trend out of the "head". If that is broken to the upside, the pattern could be busting.
DOLLAR (UUP)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/5/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/25/2025
UUP Daily Chart: Price hit the declining tops trendline out of the lat February high and was turned away. Still the Dollar was very bullish this week. The PMO is on a relatively new Crossover BUY Signal. Stochastics are rising strongly. We're looking for a breakout here.
We also note the bullish double bottom on the 1-year chart. This also suggests that the Dollar is ready to retrace some of this decline.
UUP Weekly Chart: It doesn't look bullish on the weekly chart as we have a compromised rising bottoms trendline. The weekly PMO is also falling. The weekly RSI is negative. The declining trend is still intact. Regardless, we do think we'll see more upside given our analysis of the daily chart.
GOLD
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 12/23/2024
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 10/20/2023
GLD Daily Chart: Gold is pulling back and nearly reentered the prior declining trend. However, price is also in a rising trend. We think we'll see some more decline on Gold. The Dollar looks somewhat bullish and that will put downside pressure on the metal. The PMO and Stochastics are in decline also suggesting more downside.
Discounts have begun to pare back suggesting that investors are getting more bullish. They are still quite bearish given how large the current discount is, but contracting discounts do mean less bearish sentiment.
GLD Weekly Chart: There is a parabolic advance still visible on the weekly chart. We are due for some consolidation or decline. The weekly PMO is trying to top.
GOLD MINERS Daily Chart: We've been monitoring a bearish rising wedge on the Gold Miners' chart. It was confirmed with today's breakdown. We can also make out a bearish double top. The PMO has dropped beneath its signal line for a Crossover SELL Signal. Participation is slowly leaking out of the group. With Stochastics also falling, we are looking for more pullback on GDX. Might be a good time to reevaluate your Gold Mining positions.
GDX Weekly Chart: The rally has gone almost vertical and that steep rising trend will be hard to maintain. The chart is still bullish as the rising trend is far from being compromised and the weekly PMO is rising. Longer-term, GDX should see higher prices. Right now it may need to retrace to the rising bottoms trendline.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/11/2025
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/31/2025
USO Daily Chart: Crude still looks very bullish. The RSI has gotten very overbought so we have to wonder how much further it will travel upward. With the very positive PMO and Stochastics, it could move even higher from here. Overhead resistance is the big problem.
USO/$WTIC Weekly Chart: We can see on the weekly chart that price has hit the top of its trading range that has been intact since 2022. There is still some upside available as price could rise to the 2022 high. The weekly PMO has given us a Crossover BUY Signal so our best guess is that we will see price test that high. $OVX is well below the bottom Bollinger Band on the inverted scale and that too means higher prices.
Good Luck & Good Trading!
Erin Swenlin and Carl Swenlin
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin
(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.
NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
Helpful DecisionPoint Links:
DecisionPoint Alert Chart List
DecisionPoint Golden Cross/Silver Cross Index Chart List
DecisionPoint Sector Chart List
Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)