Today the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) 20-day EMA crossed up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross) generating an IT Trend Model BUY Signal. We will discuss this fully in the Crude Oil section below.
The DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the Stock Market, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. The DecisionPoint Alert daily report (Monday through Thursday) is abbreviated and gives updates on the Weekly Wrap assessments.
MARKET/INDUSTRY GROUP/SECTOR INDEXES
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THE MARKET (S&P 500)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/4/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/16/2025
SPY 10-Minute Chart: Trading was all over the place today. As we expected we did see a morning rally, but after that a new declining trend was established. Price did hold above the 200-minute EMA. The 10-minute PMO turned up on the last minute rally. Stochastics are also rising so this level of support could hold, at least to begin trading tomorrow like we saw today.
SPY Daily Chart: Price set a higher high, but also a lower low. The rising trend is still being preserved. The PMO is still rising and is flat above the zero line implying pure strength. The RSI is not overbought so we could see higher prices.
Volatility has been sucked out of the market as the Bollinger Bands on the VIX have contracted greatly. The VIX is still holding above its moving average and Stochastics are holding above 80 so there is still visible internal strength.
S&P 500 New 52-Week Highs/Lows: New Highs contracted, but that is to be expected on a decline. Only one New Low was logged. The market appears to be at equilibrium. The High-Low Differential turned down today.
Climax* Analysis: There were no climax readings today.
*A climax is a one-day event when market action generates very high readings in, primarily, breadth and volume indicators. We also include the VIX, watching for it to penetrate outside the Bollinger Band envelope. The vertical dotted lines mark climax days -- red for downside climaxes, and green for upside. Climaxes are at their core exhaustion events; however, at price pivots they may be initiating a change of trend.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL.
The Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) were mixed today with the STO-B turning down and the STO-V continuing to rise. Participation dropped slightly as expected. We lost some rising PMOs putting the indicator below our bullish 50% threshold.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL.
The ITBM and ITVM were also mixed today. The ITBM turned down while the ITVM continued to make its way higher. We have clear negative divergences on the chart. We saw %PMO Xover BUY Signals top today. They are very close to dropping below our bullish 50% threshold.
PARTICIPATION CHART (S&P 500): The following chart objectively shows the depth and trend of participation for the SPX in two time frames.
- Intermediate-Term - the Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on IT Trend Model BUY signals (20-EMA > 50-EMA). The opposite of the Silver Cross is a "Dark Cross" -- those stocks are, at the very least, in a correction.
- Long-Term - the Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on LT Trend Model BUY signals (50-EMA > 200-EMA). The opposite of a Golden Cross is the "Death Cross" -- those stocks are in a bear market.
The market bias is BULLISH in the intermediate and long terms.
Participation was lower on the day, but readings are still healthy and could support more rally. We see negative divergences on these participation indicators which does take the shine off their healthy readings. The Silver Cross Index turned back up today with a nice thrust higher. The Golden Cross Index is also on the rise. Both are above their signal lines so the IT and LT Biases are BULLISH.
BIAS Assessment: The following table expresses the current BIAS of various price indexes based upon the relationship of the Silver Cross Index to its 10-day EMA (intermediate-term), and of the Golden Cross Index to its 20-day EMA (long-term). When the Index is above the EMA it is bullish, and it is bearish when the Index is below the EMA. The BIAS does not imply that any particular action should be taken. It is information to be used in the decision process.
The items with highlighted borders indicate that the BIAS changed today.
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CONCLUSION: We saw some cracks in the foundation today. The STO-B and ITBM both turned lower. This could be a warning sign that the market is ready to turn over. We are seeing negative divergences on participation, the STOs and the ITBM/ITVM. All of this suggests caution. We're also starting to see deterioration in rising PMOs and PMO BUY Signals. We don't like how this is shaping up. The Fed interest rate decision is next week. It is anticipated that rates will remain the same despite the president's call for lower rates. It is widely expected that we will see a rate cut in September. We'll see if this is still the case. Jobless claims and PPI are announced tomorrow. That could cause some turbulence.
Erin is 60% long, 0% short. (This is intended as information, not a recommendation.)
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CALENDAR
BITCOIN
Bitcoin is in pause mode after the strong rally pushed price above resistance. We see a bull flag on this chart and would expect to see all-time highs challenged soon. The RSI is positive and the PMO is still on the rise. Stochastics look very bullish so we expect the rally to get back on track.
BITCOIN ETFs
INTEREST RATES
Yields continued to decline today. Long-term rates are still holding rising trends so we aren't that bearish on yields. Ultimately we expect them to stay above support and oscillate in their current range.
The Yield Curve Chart from StockCharts.com shows us the inversions taking place. The red line should move higher from left to right. Inversions are occurring where it moves downward.
10-YEAR T-BOND YIELD
$TNX formed a big bearish engulfing candlestick today that does imply it'll be moving lower from here. The rising trend out of the April low is still intact. It is being tested. Given the PMO top beneath the signal line, we do think we will see a test of the 200-day EMA. That would break the rising trend which would mean good news for Bonds.
BONDS (TLT)
IT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/14/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 12/13/2024
TLT Daily Chart: TLT is moving in a slight rising trend, but has really been trading mostly sideways. Yields do look more bearish than they have in some time so we do think we'll see some more upside here. The RSI just moved into positive territory. The PMO is on the rise, but is below the zero line. Stochastics are rising again so we should see a little more upside.
DOLLAR (UUP)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/5/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/25/2025
UUP Daily Chart: The Dollar still looks very weak. It is in a short-term declining trend and an intermediate-term one. The PMO is flat beneath the zero line and that implies pure weakness. Stochastics have now topped in negative territory so we expect lower prices to continue.
GOLD
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/10/2025
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 10/20/2023
GLD Daily Chart: Gold was up on the Dollar's decline. It was up further than the Dollar declines so we did see extra buyers come in. Gold is stuck beneath resistance and is trading flat. The Dollar still looks quite weak so we should expect Gold to hold up a bit longer. The PMO is on a Crossover SELL Signal still, but it is running flat and that is a good condition, suggesting to us that Gold could make its way higher from here. Stochastics also ticked up in positive territory.
Discounts are still quite high suggesting investors are bearish on Gold. Discounts aren't at extremes so we aren't counting on sentiment to move Gold higher at this point.
GOLD MINERS (GDX) Daily Chart: Gold Miners took advantage of the rally in Gold. We still see a declining trend and the PMO is nearing a Crossover SELL Signal. Participation is still very high and all of the Miners hold Silver Crosses. There is still quite a bit of internal strength, but we don't know that this is a good entry at this time.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/11/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 3/18/2025
USO Daily Chart: Today the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) 20-day EMA crossed up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross) generating an IT Trend Model BUY Signal. The chart has really improved this past week. Today's huge thrust upward is very bullish. Price has broken from a declining trend and moved above the 200-day EMA. We think there is more upside available here. We would look toward the April high. Demand is likely picking up and that should keep price moving up. Resistance at 80 looks reachable.
Good Luck & Good Trading!
Erin Swenlin and Carl Swenlin
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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