Today the OEX triggered a new PMO crossover BUY signal. The OEX chart looks somewhat positive given the bullish ascending triangle and new BUY signal; however, resistance seems to be holding and the OBV shows a bearish reverse divergence.
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DP INDEX SCOREBOARDS:
TODAY'S Broad Market Action:
One WEEK Results:
Top 10 from ETF Tracker:
Bottom 10 from ETF Tracker:
On Friday, the DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. Monday through Thursday the DecisionPoint Alert daily report is abbreviated and covers changes for the day.
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Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
One WEEK Results:
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/8/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/8/2020
SPY Daily Chart: The PMO has turned down below its signal line which is definitely bearish. I also see a bearish reverse divergence with the OBV. There has been volume building on the OBV so that it made a new high, but price did not. Price should follow volume and it isn't.
Climactic Market Indicators: Somewhat climactic readings to the negative side. The VIX is above its average on the inverted scale which is good, but it is dropping from the previous top. Price is struggling to breakout.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL. Based upon the STO ranges, market bias is BULLISH. Yesterday's comments still apply:
"STOs are continuing lower which is bearish and we didn't really see much in the way of improvement on the %Stocks indicators."
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The Silver Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 20EMA > 50EMA) is continuing to drop and the Golden Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 50EMA > 200EMA) has topped. The BPI is moving lower below its signal line.
The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL. With most of the ITBM/ITVM readings since the end of April being above the zero lines, the market bias is BULLISH. Yesterday's comments still apply:
"Not much action on these indicators today, but I still like the rising %Stocks Xover BUY signals continuing to rise after a positive crossover."
CONCLUSION: We are seeing the weakness that I was looking for on Tuesday. I don't see any of the indicators being bullish. I'll be looking for prices to continue lower. You might want to tighten up your stops.
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 5/28/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/25/2018
UUP Daily Chart: The Dollar rallied off support and the RSI is rising again. The PMO is flat, but trying to turn over. It appears that UUP will hold onto this trading range for some time to come.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/24/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/8/2019
GOLD Daily Chart: Gold pulled back today which wasn't unexpected after its run. The RSI is still healthy and the PMO is still rising. We're seeing discounts right now which means gold buyers are bullish, but not too bullish to tell me to look for a big decline.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: Gold Miners also pulled back. The indicators look very bullish. I see this as a natural pullback after a strong rally. It is holding above the May top which is positive. The RSI is getting overbought so we may see more pullback. I'm still holding Newmont Mining (NEM) and I'm not ready to sell it.
CRUDE OIL ($WTIC)
The oil market is under severe pressure due to a lack of demand, and we do not believe that USO is an appropriate investment vehicle at this time. Until further notice we will use $WTIC to track the oil market. Since this is a continuous contract dataset, it doesn't "play well" with our Trend Models, and we will not report Trend Model signals for oil.
$WTIC Daily Chart: Yesterday's comments still apply:
"We have a bullish ascending triangle, but price is really struggling to overcome overhead resistance. The RSI looks good, but the PMO is refusing to turn up."
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/26/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/2/2019
TLT Daily Chart: Finally beginning to see the strong rally I've been looking for. I'm sad I didn't pick that up earlier this week. I still might, the indicators are very bullish.
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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
Happy Charting! - Erin
Erin's Travel Log (Thursday):
Well, we started off in Louisiana today and crossed into Texas fairly early. Now it's going to be a whole lotta Texas! We made it to Big Springs this afternoon. Highlights today were seeing so many American flags as soon as we hit Texas. Countless flags...I wish I had started counting once we arrived. We saw some longhorn cattle and we lost all of the tree lined freeway as we progressed through. The humidity dropped to almost nothing. I could almost feel the moisture being sucked out of my pores when I got out the first time. We also saw an increase in temperature in comparison to Louisiana and Alabama. The "dry heat" reminded me of my home in Southern California. Tomorrow we will be getting up early to head to Carlsbad Caverns. We're not sure we will get in yet, but if we can get there around 9a, we should be able to get a ticket. If anyone has a connection with the Park Service, let me know lol! I'm exhausted so signing off. Here are few pictures:
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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