Carl and I have been bullish Gold for some time and it is continuing to pay off. It has certainly been one of the super stars lately and based on the 10 minute bar chart below it is set up to continue higher. There is a bullish ascending wedge sitting on top of a rising trendline. The OBV has a positive divergence and the RSI is now back up above net neutral (50).
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I am traveling July 1 - July 15. I am writing on the road, but broadcasting will likely be suspended during that time. It's going to be an adventurous road trip for me and my husband. We will be taking a train from Los Angeles to New Orleans, visiting family, checking out retirement areas and then renting a car to make our way back to California with various sightseeing stops along the way. I'll be sure to post a picture or two and I'm sure I'll have funny stories to share along the way. It'll be interesting to see the various stages of the reopening of America. A heads up to Bundle subscribers, the LIVE Trading Room is on hiatus as Mary Ellen will also be out of pocket in the upcoming month. We hope to reopen in late-July. Please direct questions to firstname.lastname@example.org.
DP INDEX SCOREBOARDS:
TODAY'S Broad Market Action:
One WEEK Results:
Top 10 from ETF Tracker:
Bottom 10 from ETF Tracker:
On Friday, the DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. Monday through Thursday the DecisionPoint Alert daily report is abbreviated and covers changes for the day.
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Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
One WEEK Results:
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/8/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/8/2020
SPY Daily Chart: The market popped back up today and closed just above the cluster of tops from mid-June. The PMO has now turned up. Volume has been light this week but that could be chalked up to holiday trading.
Climactic Market Indicators: No climactic readings today. The VIX is hovering above its average on the inverted scale and that is somewhat bullish. I don't like the declining trend its in.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL. Based upon the STO ranges, market bias is BULLISH. STOs are continuing lower which is bearish and we didn't really see much in the way of improvement on the %Stocks indicators.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The Silver Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 20EMA > 50EMA) is turning up and the Golden Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 50EMA > 200EMA) is rising again. We still have the BPI moving lower below its signal line and the Silver Cross Index is falling.
The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL. With most of the ITBM/ITVM readings since the end of April being above the zero lines, the market bias is BULLISH. Not much action on these indicators today, but I still like the rising %Stocks Xover BUY signals continuing to rise after a positive crossover.
CONCLUSION: We didn't see lower prices today as the indicators had suggested. I don't see much change here and unfortunately have to sit in "neutral", neither bullish or bearish. My portfolio positions are in a holding pattern for now.
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 5/28/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/25/2018
UUP Daily Chart: The Dollar is in a declining trend. It is arriving toward the bottom of its current trading range. The RSI is weak and the PMO has turned over. It should certainly test that support level, but I'm not so sure it will hold it.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/24/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/8/2019
GOLD Daily Chart: As noted in the introduction today, I'm bullish on Gold. The RSI is getting overbought, but that's fine for now given the strong PMO rising. We aren't seeing high discounts right now so sentiment is neutral. A back of the napkin calculation for a minimum upside target from the falling wedge would be around 1875 - 1885. That is certainly reachable given the positive indicators.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: Gold Miners are smoking right now and I'm loving it. The RSI is getting overbought and many of the other indicators are too; however, the PMO is rising nicely and is NOT overbought. After this big push higher, we could see a pullback toward the breakout area around $37.50, but I am not expecting it to break down there just yet.
CRUDE OIL ($WTIC)
The oil market is under severe pressure due to a lack of demand, and we do not believe that USO is an appropriate investment vehicle at this time. Until further notice we will use $WTIC to track the oil market. Since this is a continuous contract dataset, it doesn't "play well" with our Trend Models, and we will not report Trend Model signals for oil.
$WTIC Daily Chart: Yesterday's comments still apply:
"We have a bullish ascending triangle, but price is really struggling to overcome overhead resistance. The RSI looks good, but the PMO is refusing to turn up."
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/26/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/2/2019
TLT Daily Chart: TLT pulled back at short-term resistance along the June tops. Given the PMO and RSI, I am bullish Bonds.
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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
Happy Charting! - Erin
Erin's Travel Log:
Today was a long drive from Florida to Alexandria, Louisiana. We had planned on stopping in Lafayette but decided to keep going so our trip tomorrow would be a little shorter as we head into Abilene TX. Last night we had steamed oysters and shrimp at the Old Bay Steamer in Ft. Walton Beach FL. As we left this morning, we stopped at one of my favorites that you can't get in California...Waffle House! I forgot how amazing their waffles and hash browns are. The scenery has been beautiful. I can't get over how lush and green the South is. We saw fields and fields of various agriculture...sugar cane, corn and soy beans. I didn't know there were so many shades of green! I noticed that Alabama and Florida were VERY vigilant as far as wearing masks, but Louisiana has been less so. Doesn't matter to me, I'm wearing mine diligently. Below are few highlights from last night in Ft Walton Beach and through today.
75 miles per hour! Wow!
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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