Today on the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP), the 50-EMA crossed above the 200-EMA which technically puts XLP in a "bull market" configuration. However, the chart isn't that impressive to me right now. As Staples generally do, it is in a trading range and it hasn't busted out yet. The BPI has turned down along with %Stocks > 20/50-EMAs. The RSI is positive so we could see a breakout here. The OBV broke out above its previous high, but price hasn't. There is a double-bottom, but I think the trading range is the dominant pattern here and we didn't see a breakout.
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I am traveling July 1 - July 15. I am writing on the road, but broadcasting will likely be suspended during that time. It's going to be an adventurous road trip for me and my husband. We will be taking a train from Los Angeles to New Orleans, visiting family, checking out retirement areas and then renting a car to make our way back to California with various sightseeing stops along the way. I'll be sure to post a picture or two and I'm sure I'll have funny stories to share along the way. It'll be interesting to see the various stages of the reopening of America. A heads up to Bundle subscribers, the LIVE Trading Room is on hiatus as Mary Ellen will also be out of pocket in the upcoming month. We hope to reopen in late-July. Please direct questions to firstname.lastname@example.org.
DP INDEX SCOREBOARDS:
TODAY'S Broad Market Action:
One WEEK Results:
Top 10 from ETF Tracker:
Bottom 10 from ETF Tracker:
On Friday, the DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. Monday through Thursday the DecisionPoint Alert daily report is abbreviated and covers changes for the day.
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Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
One WEEK Results:
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/8/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/8/2020
SPY Daily Chart: Price dropped back below short-term tops and back in a trading range. The PMO is flat right now.
Climactic Market Indicators: I see climactic readings to the downside today. This is the first down day, so I have to read this as a selling initiation, not an exhaustion. The VIX also suggests we should see some downside tomorrow or the day after.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL. Based upon the STO ranges, market bias is BULLISH. The STOs turned down today and I would say that is another confirmation that we should see lower prices. Also note the big decline in the %Stocks indicators.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The Silver Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 20EMA > 50EMA) is turning up and the Golden Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 50EMA > 200EMA) is rising again. The BPI turned down below its signal line and the Silver Cross Index is falling.
The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL. With most of the ITBM/ITVM readings since the end of April being above the zero lines, the market bias is BULLISH. The ITBM/ITVM ticked lower today, but I have to say I like seeing the %PMO BUY Signals having a positive crossover.
CONCLUSION: Yesterday we saw a buying exhaustion and today we got a selling initiation on the climactic indicators. With the indicators beginning to turn down in all timeframes, I would look for lower prices again.
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 5/28/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/25/2018
UUP Daily Chart: The Dollar bounced before reaching the bottom of the trading range. I don't expect much out of this bounce. The 20-EMA is the resistance area I will be watching. The RSI is negative and the PMO is flat.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/24/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/8/2019
GOLD Daily Chart: Gold broke out above its previous high. The RSI is positive and the PMO is accelerating upward. I'm bullish Gold.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: Gold Miners broke out today with Gold. The RSI is in an excellent position--positive and rising but not overbought yet. All of the other indicators while overbought, are very positive. I suspect those overbought conditions will continue as I am still looking for Miners to move higher.
CRUDE OIL ($WTIC)
The oil market is under severe pressure due to a lack of demand, and we do not believe that USO is an appropriate investment vehicle at this time. Until further notice we will use $WTIC to track the oil market. Since this is a continuous contract dataset, it doesn't "play well" with our Trend Models, and we will not report Trend Model signals for oil.
$WTIC Daily Chart: Yesterday's comments still apply:
"We have a bullish ascending triangle, but price is really struggling to overcome overhead resistance. The RSI looks good, but the PMO is refusing to turn up."
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/26/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/2/2019
TLT Daily Chart: TLT bounced off support and rallied strongly today. The RSI is now pointed up and not overbought, and the PMO is rising positively.
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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
Happy Charting! - Erin
Erin's Travel Log:
Not much to report today as we spent most of the day with family. Today for lunch we had take-out from a place called "It Don't Matter". The reason apparently it got its name was when the wife would ask "Where you want to eat?" and the husband would reply "It don't matter." Gotta love Alabama! The fried chicken is the best I've had. Juicy under that breading but not greasy. The fried okra and butter beans were an excellent complement to the chicken. Oh! I forgot to tell you about dinner last night...we had pulled pork sandwiches with coleslaw IN the bun topping the meat. Never had it that way but loved it! Apparently that is the southern way to eat a pulled pork sandwich. I trust my Aunt Cam to know :-)
Quiet trip down to Ft Walton Beach, FL. It's beautiful but too crowded for us. I think Lake Martin or Lake Jordan, AL will be our retirement area. I've had many subscribers recommend their own states and towns, and while I would love to see them too, being around family is so important and that makes AL our home when the time comes. Speaking of family, below is a picture of a plaque that was given to my Grandpa Edgar. He served in the Marines and I'm beyond impressed and proud of all of his accomplishments. May you rest in peace <3
We still have seafood dinner for tonight to come. I can't wait to get me some fried oysters and hush puppies! Talk to y'all tomorrow! Below is a pic from our trip to FL. I was doing a lot of knitting and missed the welcome to Florida sign!
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
Helpful DecisionPoint Links (Can Be Found on DecisionPoint.com Links Page):
DecisionPoint Shared ChartList and DecisionPoint Chart Gallery
Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)
Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)