The 50-EMA crossed above the 200-EMA and in so doing, triggered a Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal on the Energy SPDR (XLE). This didn't really improve the look of the chart which still remains bearish in my estimation. The best feature on the chart besides the LT Trend Model BUY signal, would be the rising trend channel. The PMO is on a SELL signal in overbought territory. The OBV still shows declining tops, the Silver Cross Index (SCI) just had a negative crossover, %Stocks above 20/50-EMAs are in declining trends and finally, there was a negative crossover on the Golden Cross Index (GCI).
TODAY'S Broad Market Action:
The DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. Monday through Thursday the DecisionPoint Alert daily report is abbreviated and covers changes for the day.
Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV's YouTube channel here!
Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 9/6/2019
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 2/26/2019
SPY Daily Chart: Today's OHLC bar popped above the bearish rising wedge. If this forms a top, we could see this rising wedge morph into a rising trend channel. The PMO and OBV are positive. I would've like to have seen a pop in total volume on the SPX, but it is still in a healthy area.
Climactic Market Indicators: Today we have climactic readings to decipher. The New Highs, Net A-D and Net A-D Volume all popped today into very overbought territory. These 'spikes' tell me to look for an initiation or an exhaustion. Since the previous trend has been rising and the VIX is near the top of the Bollinger Bands, I would bank on a buying exhaustion. This is very short-term, so I would expect tomorrow or Monday we will see a small pullback or simply a pause. I'm still watching the squeeze in the VIX as it does remind me of July of last year.
Short-Term Market Indicators: These indicators look great and suggest more upside in the short term overall. Participation is expanding and that is what fuels a rally.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: We can see declining tops on the SCI this month, but readings are in the healthy above 80 range.
The ITVM is has turned back up and will hopefully have a positive crossover soon to confirm what we're seeing on the ITBM.
CONCLUSION: The trend of the market is up and the condition is overbought. Indicators are healthy and suggest more upside, but looking at the buying exhaustion readings on the climactic indicators, I believe we should see a pause or slight pullback in the next day or two. The negative divergences are starting clear on some of our indicators. It will be interesting to see what Carl has to say tomorrow in the DP Weekly Wrap!
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 12/11/2019
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/25/2018
UUP Daily Chart: The Dollar held support at the 20-EMA. The PMO suggests that we should see an upside breakout in the Dollar soon.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 12/26/2019
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/8/2019
GOLD Daily Chart: Gold is holding support. The PMO is deteriorating and discounts are getting low (suggesting bullish participants). I was thinking we'd see Gold rebound, but the circumstances aren't ripe.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: Miners are rebounding and the SCI suggests participation is beginning to improve somewhat.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 11/6/2019
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 12/16/2019
USO Daily Chart: USO was able to cling to support at the 200-EMA and pull itself back up into its intermediate-term rising trend. I still think the chart is bearish given the PMO and lack of volume on this nearly 1% move to the upside.
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 12/12/2019
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/2/2019
TLT Daily Chart: TLT is still trying to execute this bullish rising wedge. The chart remains bullish. Looking for a 20/50-EMA positive crossover. That would trigger an Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal and suggest that a rally should continue.
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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