We suspected that today would be a positive trading day based on the ceasefire brokered between Israel and Iran. We were not disappointed with price gapping up on the open and continuing in a straightforward rising trend all day. We do note that the final ten minutes of trading saw quite a drop. The 10-minute PMO is being pulled lower and on the final ten minutes, Stochastics fell heavily.
The DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the Stock Market, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. The DecisionPoint Alert daily report (Monday through Thursday) is abbreviated and gives updates on the Weekly Wrap assessments.
MARKET/INDUSTRY GROUP/SECTOR INDEXES
CLICK HERE for Carl's annotated Market Index, Sector, and Industry Group charts.
THE MARKET (S&P 500)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/4/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/16/2025
SPY Daily Chart: The rally looks solid and has brought price out of a congestion zone. The PMO is on the rise toward a Crossover BUY Signal. The RSI is not overbought yet so we could see higher prices. The PMO is also flat above the zero line and that implies pure strength.
The VIX is now back above its moving average on the inverted scale suggesting internal strength. Stochastics are also showing internal strength as they rise toward 80.
S&P 500 New 52-Week Highs/Lows: New Highs expanded and we saw no New Lows. The High-Low Differential is still declining, but it has flattened and could turn back up soon.
Climax* Analysis: Today there were two climax readings on the four relevant indicators, which we are going to read as an upside exhaustion climax. Total Volume was above average, confirming the climax.
*A climax is a one-day event when market action generates very high readings in, primarily, breadth and volume indicators. We also include the VIX, watching for it to penetrate outside the Bollinger Band envelope. The vertical dotted lines mark climax days -- red for downside climaxes, and green for upside. Climaxes are at their core exhaustion events; however, at price pivots they may be initiating a change of trend.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL.
The Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) are rising strongly with both of them now in positive territory. Participation continues to expand and is now at bullish levels. We saw a large amount of rising PMOs come in today. We can't completely discount the negative divergences however.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL.
The ITBM and ITVM look very bullish on their upside reversal. %PMO Xover BUY Signals just crossed above its signal line.
PARTICIPATION CHART (S&P 500): The following chart objectively shows the depth and trend of participation for the SPX in two time frames.
- Intermediate-Term - the Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on IT Trend Model BUY signals (20-EMA > 50-EMA). The opposite of the Silver Cross is a "Dark Cross" -- those stocks are, at the very least, in a correction.
- Long-Term - the Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on LT Trend Model BUY signals (50-EMA > 200-EMA). The opposite of a Golden Cross is the "Death Cross" -- those stocks are in a bear market.
The market bias is BEARISH in the intermediate term.
The market bias is BULLISH in the long term.
Participation continues to heal as more and more stocks move above key moving averages. All readings are above our bullish 50% threshold. The Silver Cross Index held steady today. It is still below its signal line so the IT Bias is BEARISH. The Golden Cross Index is moving swiftly higher as more stocks see Golden Crosses. It is holding above its signal line so the LT Bias is BULLISH.
BIAS Assessment: The following table expresses the current BIAS of various price indexes based upon the relationship of the Silver Cross Index to its 10-day EMA (intermediate-term), and of the Golden Cross Index to its 20-day EMA (long-term). When the Index is above the EMA it is bullish, and it is bearish when the Index is below the EMA. The BIAS does not imply that any particular action should be taken. It is information to be used in the decision process.
The items with highlighted borders indicate that the BIAS changed today.
*****************************************************************************************************
CONCLUSION: Most everything is going right on our indicator charts. The worst we can say is that they still sport negative divergences. Key indicators are rising right now with the STOs back in positive territory. The Bias Table hasn't really improved much and that does leave us cautious. The upside exhaustion climax also has us cautious especially given today's last minute sell-off. The market may've corrected internally with sideways trading. Now we have a breakout. We believe the market could make its way higher from here, but given how overvalued it is, we have to wonder when it will eventually correct.
Erin is 50% long, 0% short. (This is intended as information, not a recommendation.)
*****************************************************************************************************
CALENDAR
BITCOIN
We continue to monitor the bearish double top pattern. As noted yesterday, it was technically confirmed with the breakdown over the weekend, but it is trying to rebound. We are still cautious given the chart pattern. The PMO is beginning to turn back up, but we aren't expecting this to be a breakout move. At least not yet. The double top is still in force and that leaves us bearish.
BITCOIN ETFs
INTEREST RATES
Yields continued to fall today. We expect more weakness, but are on the lookout for an upside reversal.
The Yield Curve Chart from StockCharts.com shows us the inversions taking place. The red line should move higher from left to right. Inversions are occurring where it moves downward.
10-YEAR T-BOND YIELD
We are bearish on yields right now, but given the bullish falling wedge, we think the decline will subside. Support has been lost at the 200-day EMA so it looks very weak. Stochastics are below 20. The PMO is nearing negative territory. We'll look for more decline but are on the lookout for an upside reversal.
BONDS (TLT)
IT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/14/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 12/13/2024
TLT Daily Chart: Bonds still look bullish especially given today's bullish engulfing candlestick. The problem is that TLT is in a bearish rising wedge. It could extend out further, but given we are nearing the 200-day EMA, this could be where we see failure. The PMO is still rising and so are Stochastics so we should see some more upside ahead.
DOLLAR (UUP)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/5/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/25/2025
UUP Daily Chart: The Dollar failed to overcome the second declining tops trendline. It was looking pretty good for the Dollar, but it is retreating once again. Support is still holding, but Stochastics have now turned back down. The RSI is negative and the PMO is flat below the zero line. Support looks vulnerable.
The bullish double bottom pattern appears ready to bust already. We do see strong support available at 26.75.
GOLD
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/10/2025
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 10/20/2023
GLD Daily Chart: The Dollar was down and so was Gold so Gold saw extra sellers today. With the world stabilizing, we could see less interest in this safe haven. The rising bottoms trendline has been broken, but the 50-day EMA is available as support. We suspect that it is vulnerable given the declining PMO and Stochastics. The RSI has also dropped into negative territory.
Price is dropping back into a declining trend channel. Gold looks very vulnerable.
GOLD MINERS (GDX) Daily Chart: The falling wedge on GDX confirmed with today's breakdown. We were already getting bearish on this group, but this breakdown tells us to expect more downside. Participation is beginning to suffer as far as stocks above their 20-day EMA. The Silver Cross Index has dropped beneath its signal line so the IT Bias is BEARISH. We would look for prices to continue to fall from here.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/11/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 3/18/2025
USO Daily Chart: We saw another huge decline on Crude Oil today. We knew price was arriving at long-term overhead resistance, but didn't see this crash coming. Price is nearing support and that is where we would look for a snapback of some kind. Indicators are of course very negative after two days of terrible decline and do portend lower prices from here, but as we said, we think there is a good chance that we'll see a rally off this upcoming support level. This decline seems overdone.
Good Luck & Good Trading!
Erin Swenlin and Carl Swenlin
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin
(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.
NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
Helpful DecisionPoint Links:
DecisionPoint Alert Chart List
DecisionPoint Golden Cross/Silver Cross Index Chart List
DecisionPoint Sector Chart List
Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)