Today theNasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) 50-day EMA crossed up through the 200-day EMA (Golden Cross), generating an LT Trend Model BUY Signal. The rally is strong and we can see that the QQQ has been outperforming the SPY. The main problem on the chart is an overbought RSI that does suggest we need at least some kind of pause or pullback. With participation so strong though, it could continue to make its way higher from here.
The gap up move took price back into its bull market rising trend. The weekly PMO has turned back up and does suggest we will see more upside.
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Also today, the Materials Sector ETF (XLB) 20-day EMA crossed up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross) generating an IT Trend Model BUY Signal. XLB has had a nice rally but nothing like the growth areas. It did finally get above the 200-day EMA so it may be time for this sector to start performing a little better. Participation is very strong. The Silver and Golden Cross Indexes are above their signal lines but admittedly are at low levels right now. We need to see more expansion here. It's on the right track.
This week price popped out of the declining trend it had been in. This is accompanied by a rising weekly PMO that suggests we should see more upside.
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Finally, the Dow Jones Transportation Average ETF (IYT) 20-day EMA crossed up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross) generating an IT Trend Model BUY Signal. Participation is at 100% for stocks above their 20-day EMAs and it is nearly 100% for stocks above their 50-day EMA. This can definitely support higher prices from here. This group has been performing well against the SPY. The Golden Cross Index just crossed above its signal line and the Silver Cross Index is rising strongly. Both are still at very low levels, but given strong participation, this should change.
We have a strong gap up move, but technically the declining trend out of the all-time high is still intact. This does look very bullish as the rally is nearly vertical right now. The weekly PMO is rising strongly so we would expect to see a move that could challenge all-time highs.
The DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the Stock Market, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. The DecisionPoint Alert daily report (Monday through Thursday) is abbreviated and gives updates on the Weekly Wrap assessments.
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MARKET/SPX SECTOR/INDUSTRY GROUP INDEXES
Change Today: 
Change for the Week:
CLICK HERE for Carl's annotated Market Index, Sector, and Industry Group charts.
THE MARKET (S&P 500)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/4/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/16/2025
SPY 10-Minute Chart: Price was a little unsure to start the day, but it found its footing and rose into the close. Stochastics have turned up so we could see some follow-through on Monday although we do have a climax to contend with that we'll discuss later.
SPY Daily Chart: The rally is credible and continues to push higher. The PMO is very bullish and the RSI isn't quite overbought yet so more upside can be accommodated. It does look ready for a pause or pullback, but so far we haven't seen much weakness.
The VIX is reading at a low level suggesting we do have some complacency with the rally. It is above its moving average on the inverted scale and that implies strength. Stochastics continue to hover above 80 denoting internal strength. Mega-caps are essentially in charge as we see a rising relative strength line to equal-weight RSP.
SPY Weekly Chart: The gap up move puts a very bullish spin on the weekly chart. The weekly PMO is rising suggesting more upside ahead.
New 52-Week Highs/Lows: New Highs popped today as more stocks have recovered due to this strong rally. We had no New Lows which is quite bullish. The High-Low Differential isn't moving much, but ultimately it is rising.
Climax Analysis: Today there were unanimous climax readings on the four relevant indicators, giving us another upside exhaustion climax.
*A climax is a one-day event when market action generates very high readings in, primarily, breadth and volume indicators. We also include the VIX, watching for it to penetrate outside the Bollinger Band envelope. The vertical dotted lines mark climax days -- red for downside climaxes, and green for upside. Climaxes are at their core exhaustion events; however, at price pivots they may be initiating a change of trend.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is UP and the condition is OVERBOUGHT.
Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) can be considered overbought right now. They are both rising again which is bullish, but we see some short-term vulnerability given this overbought condition. We also picked up negative divergences between STOs and price. Participation is very strong and saw nice gains on the rally. 90% of stocks have rising PMOs right now and that could also keep price elevated.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is OVERBOUGHT.
The ITBM and ITVM are clearly overbought and that also makes this rally vulnerable. They are both rising right now and that is certainly positive, but we should be on the lookout for a possible decline given these overbought conditions. %PMO Xover BUY Signals look very bullish, but the indicator is definitely overbought.
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PARTICIPATION TABLES: The following tables summarize participation for the major market indexes and sectors. The 1-Week Change columns inject a dynamic aspect to the presentation. There are three groups: Major Market Indexes, Miscellaneous Industry Groups, and the 11 S&P 500 Sectors.
All but Gold Miners (GDX) hold positive/neutral IT Biases which indicates we are in a strong bull market move.
Semiconductors (SMH) are really making a comeback on the SCI so we have a very positive IT Bias for them.
This table is sorted by SCI values. This gives a clear picture of strongest to weakest index/sector in terms of intermediate-term participation.
Utilities (XLU) interestingly have the highest SCI reading. The sector has been rallying, but not to the extent as many of the other members have.
Notice that SMH gained a whopping 64 percentage points on the SCI. Definitely a group on the move right now.
Biotechs (IBB) is showing weakness as it holds the lowest SCI value. It even lost a percentage point this week.
GDX lost 14 percentage points as the group spirals lower on the weakness in Gold.
This table is sorted by GCI values. This gives a clear picture of strongest to weakest index/sector in terms of long-term participation.
GDX has a strong foundation given it holds the highest GCI value, but it is deteriorating and we expect it to deteriorate even more as Gold looks weak.
SMH has some work to do on the GCI. It did see a gain of 8 percentage points so it is on the right track.
PARTICIPATION CHART (S&P 500): The following chart objectively shows the depth and trend of participation for the SPX in two time frames.
- Intermediate-Term - the Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on IT Trend Model BUY signals (20-EMA > 50-EMA). The opposite of the Silver Cross is a "Dark Cross" -- those stocks are, at the very least, in a correction.
- Long-Term - the Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on LT Trend Model BUY signals (50-EMA > 200-EMA). The opposite of a Golden Cross is the "Death Cross" -- those stocks are in a bear market.
The market bias is BULLISH in both the intermediate and long term timeframes.
Participation is getting overbought. It can stay at those high levels in a strong bull market move and that is what we have right now. Still, overbought conditions are nothing to sneeze at. The market is overdue for a pullback and these overbought conditions could pose a problem. At the same time with participation so high, the market could stay elevated awhile longer. The Silver Cross Index and Golden Cross Indexes are both rising strongly right now. We need to get the Golden Cross Index back above our bullish 50% threshold. For now both the SCI and GCI are above their signal lines which gives us a BULLISH IT and LT Bias.
BIAS Assessment: The following table expresses the current BIAS of various price indexes based upon the relationship of the Silver Cross Index to its 10-day EMA (intermediate-term), and of the Golden Cross Index to its 20-day EMA (long-term). When the Index is above the EMA it is bullish, and it is bearish when the Index is below the EMA. The BIAS does not imply that any particular action should be taken. It is information to be used in the decision process.
The items with highlighted borders indicate that the BIAS changed today.
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CONCLUSION: The market is rolling higher and given strong participation numbers and rising indicators, the rally could continue. However, there are a few problems that need to be addressed. STOs/ITBM/ITVM are overbought. STOs show negative divergences. Today saw an upside exhaustion climax. Prior exhaustion climaxes haven't resulted in a downturn, but we think given overbought conditions, this one will execute with lower prices. The DP Scoreboard and Bias Table show bullish readings coming back in. Internals are very strong so we don't think a pause or decline will be painful, but it may take a good sized decline to clear overbought conditions. For now we expect those overbought conditions to persist, but with the upside exhaustion climax we should see at least a pause in this strong rally.
Erin is 70% long, 0% short. (This is intended as information, not a recommendation.)
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CALENDAR
BITCOIN
Bitcoin Daily Chart: Bitcoin is in pause mode after a burst higher. This seems to be its personality right now so we expect another burst upward now that we've consolidated. The PMO looks alright as it is mostly flat. The RSI is no longer overbought so more upside can be had. Stochastics are holding above 80 implying internal strength. We are bullish on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart: We have a personality on the weekly chart as well. Bursts higher followed by consolidation and decline. We're now in the next burst higher. The weekly PMO is rising toward a Crossover BUY Signal which is another reason we are bullish on Bitcoin.
BITCOIN ETFs
Today:
This Week:
INTEREST RATES
Yields tipped back up today. We are still bullish on yields and do expect a move to test 2025 highs.
The Yield Curve Chart from StockCharts.com shows us the inversions taking place. The red line should move higher from left to right. Inversions are occurring where it moves downward.
10-YEAR T-BOND YIELD
We had a bullish falling wedge with a breakout and then we saw a bearish rising wedge that executed as expected with a decline today. It is a hollow red candlestick and those are bullish. Stochastics did top but remain above 80 and the PMO is still on the rise. We expect an upside reversal.
10-Year Bond Yield Weekly Chart: We believe that the yield is headed back to the top of this trading range. The weekly PMO is flat and is not helpful. This could mean we have more sideways movement ahead.
MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES (30-Yr)**
**We watch the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate, because, for the most part, people buy homes based upon the maximum monthly payment they can afford. As rates rise, a fixed monthly payment will carry a smaller mortgage amount, which shuts many buyers out of the market, and potential sellers will experience pressure to lower prices (to no effect so far).
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This week the 30-Year Fixed Rate changed from 6.76 to 6.81.
Here is a 50-year chart for better perspective.
BONDS (TLT)
IT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/14/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 12/13/2024
TLT Daily Chart: Bonds were up slightly today. They formed a bearish filled black candlestick which does imply a decline for Monday. This is a good place for an upside reversal, but we are still bullish on yields and that will apply downside pressure to all Bond funds. The PMO hasn't turned up yet and the RSI is negative. Stochastics are rising, but they are below 20 flashing weakness.
TLT Weekly Chart: Price never got to the top of the rising trend channel before it was turned away and that is bearish. The weekly PMO is moving lower on a new Crossover SELL Signal so the rising bottoms trendline will likely be broken soon.
DOLLAR (UUP)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/5/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/25/2025
UUP Daily Chart: The rising trend continues on the Dollar. We are expecting a break from the next declining tops trendline. The PMO is rising and the RSI is positive and not overbought. Stochastics are rising again so we expect the rally in the Dollar to continue.
UUP Weekly Chart: Price has recaptured the rising bottoms trendline. The weekly PMO did just dip below the zero line, but this looks like a solid rally. Price did not have to go all the way down to support at 26.50 before reversing and that is bullish.
GOLD
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 12/23/2024
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 10/20/2023
GLD Daily Chart: Gold looks bearish and with the Dollar looking bullish, Gold will likely continue to struggle. We have a bearish double top that was confirmed this week with a small breakdown. The indicators are bearish. The RSI and Stochastics are in negative territory. The PMO is falling. We can also see that relative strength is failing against the Dollar.
Sentiment is very bearish and has reached extremes. This often times will lead to an upside reversal, but we think Gold isn't ready for a reversal yet. High discounts mean that investors are very bearish. That won't help Gold. We wonder if we'll see even higher discounts ahead.
GLD Weekly Chart: It looks as though Gold may be ready to break the parabolic advance. It is due for some consolidation at the very least, but we vote for more downside. The weekly PMO did top.
GOLD MINERS Daily Chart: Gold Miners are in pullback mode and that is likely to continue on as Gold continues to display weakness. They don't have to travel with Gold, but they typically do. We would look for the next line of support to be tested. Participation is melting away and both the Silver and Golden Cross Indexes are dropping below their signal lines. There is a good chance price will test the 200-day EMA before reversing.
GDX Weekly Chart: We essentially have a parabolic advance on the weekly chart and it is due for a correction. They certainly have further to fall. The weekly PMO has decelerated but it still rising. We expect the rising trend to be broken soon.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 2/27/2025
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/31/2025
USO Daily Chart: Crude hit overhead resistance and was turned away. The PMO is still rising and the RSI is positive, but Stochastics have dropped below 80. We are expecting another test of support rather than a breakout. We could be wrong given we still have some bullish indicators, but so far it is reacting as expected with a decline.
This is a large bullish double bottom pattern, but given this drop at the confirmation line, we don't think it will fulfill with the requisite breakout.
USO/$WTIC Weekly Chart: Price is near the bottom of a long-term trading range that has held for years. The weekly PMO is in decline and we aren't thrilled with the daily chart, so we are looking for a test of 2023 lows.
Good Luck & Good Trading!
Erin Swenlin and Carl Swenlin
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin
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