Today the S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) 50-day EMA crossed up through the 200-day EMA (Golden Cross), generating an LT Trend Model BUY Signal. We'll discuss the implications further in the report.
The gap up move combined with the rising weekly PMO suggest we will eventually hit all-time highs.
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Also today, the S&P 100 Index ETF (OEF) 50-day EMA crossed up through the 200-day EMA (Golden Cross), generating an LT Trend Model BUY Signal. Mega-caps are healthy and that is clear from the participation readings on the SP100. The PMO and Stochastics are very positive. The RSI is not overbought yet and can accommodate higher prices from here. Both the Silver Cross Index and Golden Cross Index are above our bullish 50% threshold.
As with the SPY, this gap up move combined with the rising weekly PMO suggest we will get to all-time highs.
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Also today, the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index ETF (MDY) 20-day EMA crossed up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross) generating an IT Trend Model BUY Signal. The rally is fairly broad when you look at the mid-caps. Participation is very healthy and both the Silver/Golden Cross Indexes are above their signal lines and rising. Stochastics are camped out above 80 suggesting to us price should continue to make its way higher.
We do see that MDY is up against resistance on the weekly chart. The declining trend is also intact. However, we have another gap up move with a rising weekly PMO suggesting higher prices ahead.
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Finally the Regional Banking ETF (KRE) 20-day EMA crossed up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross) generating an IT Trend Model BUY Signal. Price has broken above resistance and is making its way consistently higher. Participation is very overbought, but those conditions can persist in a bull market move such as this one. The Golden Cross Index just had a Bullish Shift across its signal line moving the LT Bias to BULLISH. There is the possibility of a reverse island formation, but given the indicators are so positive, we don't think that will materialize.
The declining trend out of the 2024 top is still intact, but the weekly PMO is back on the rise so we would expect to see more upside here.
The DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the Stock Market, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. The DecisionPoint Alert daily report (Monday through Thursday) is abbreviated and gives updates on the Weekly Wrap assessments.
MARKET/INDUSTRY GROUP/SECTOR INDEXES
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THE MARKET (S&P 500)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/14/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/16/2025
SPY 10-Minute Chart: The market started down on the open, but made its way into positive territory later in the morning. It held at that level throughout the day. Stochastics are rising strongly so we could see some follow-through tomorrow.
SPY Daily Chart: Today saw a Golden Cross on the SPY which essentially puts it back in a bull market move. We saw a bullish engulfing candlestick today. The PMO is rising strongly and amazingly the RSI is not overbought yet so the rally isn't that vulnerable.
The VIX is holding above its moving average on the inverted scale. The VIX puncture this week didn't see a reversal which means the market is clicking. Stochastics are holding at the top of the range which is extremely bullish.
S&P 500 New 52-Week Highs/Lows: New Highs did see some action today. The High-Low Differential had topped yesterday, but today turned back up while above the zero line which is bullish.
Climax* Analysis: There were no climax readings today.
*A climax is a one-day event when market action generates very high readings in, primarily, breadth and volume indicators. We also include the VIX, watching for it to penetrate outside the Bollinger Band envelope. The vertical dotted lines mark climax days -- red for downside climaxes, and green for upside. Climaxes are at their core exhaustion events; however, at price pivots they may be initiating a change of trend.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL.
Both Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) turned down on today's rally suggesting there may be some internal problems. However, we did see participation expand and we saw more rising PMOs.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is OVERBOUGHT.
The ITBM had topped yesterday, but today it turned back up. Also reversing higher, %PMO Xover BUY Signals. It had topped yesterday and dropped below its signal line. Today it is back above the signal line.
PARTICIPATION CHART (S&P 500): The following chart objectively shows the depth and trend of participation for the SPX in two time frames.
- Intermediate-Term - the Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on IT Trend Model BUY signals (20-EMA > 50-EMA). The opposite of the Silver Cross is a "Dark Cross" -- those stocks are, at the very least, in a correction.
- Long-Term - the Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on LT Trend Model BUY signals (50-EMA > 200-EMA). The opposite of a Golden Cross is the "Death Cross" -- those stocks are in a bear market.
The market bias is BULLISH in the intermediate term and long term.
Participation readings are all above our bullish 50% threshold and are technically not overbought. They could move higher from here and likely will should this rally continue on. The Silver Cross Index looks very bullish as it rises almost vertically. It is above its signal line so the IT Bias is BULLISH. The Golden Cross Index is rising strongly and is also above its signal line so the LT Bias is also BULLISH.
BIAS Assessment: The following table expresses the current BIAS of various price indexes based upon the relationship of the Silver Cross Index to its 10-day EMA (intermediate-term), and of the Golden Cross Index to its 20-day EMA (long-term). When the Index is above the EMA it is bullish, and it is bearish when the Index is below the EMA. The BIAS does not imply that any particular action should be taken. It is information to be used in the decision process.
The items with highlighted borders indicate that the BIAS changed today.
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CONCLUSION: The Market Scoreboard is switching over to BUY Signals in the intermediate and long terms as more stocks get Silver and Golden Crosses. The Bias Table is mostly bullish as well. Participation is strong enough to keep the market elevated. It also shows us that the rally has broadened out. The only sticking point would be topping STOs. All other indicators are acting bullish. This might signal a small pullback ahead, but ultimately the market is healthy and barring any negative headlines, it should continue to make its way higher. We just may see a pause here based on STOs.
Erin is 70% long, 0% short. (This is intended as information, not a recommendation.)
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CALENDAR
BITCOIN
The rising trend is holding strong. The PMO has flattened out on this consolidation, but it has helped the RSI get out of overbought territory. This looks like prep for another burst higher. Stochastics have turned up above 80 which is very bullish.
BITCOIN ETFs
INTEREST RATES
Yields surprised with a huge drop on economic news today. This certainly helped today's rally. We still see strong rising trends so we do expect them to start expanding again soon.
The Yield Curve Chart from StockCharts.com shows us the inversions taking place. The red line should move higher from left to right. Inversions are occurring where it moves downward.
10-YEAR T-BOND YIELD
We pointed out a bearish rising wedge yesterday. It hasn't seen the requisite breakdown yet, but today's big decline sets it up for a breakdown. The indicators haven't fallen apart so ultimately we do expect them to breakout, but first we may see some decline off this bearish pattern.
BONDS (TLT)
IT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/14/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 12/13/2024
TLT Daily Chart: Bonds had a good day as yields plunged today. This rally is coming off a support zone so it isn't out of the question that we'll see more rally. We just don't expect it to amount to much as yields still look quite bullish.
DOLLAR (UUP)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/5/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/25/2025
UUP Daily Chart: The Dollar has formed a small declining trend this week, but the PMO still looks fairly bullish. It is below the zero line so there could still be problems, but this rising trend is holding up for now. Stochastics are not encouraging right now so we could see some weakness. We will go with the rising trend and PMO and look for higher prices.
GOLD
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/10/2025
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 10/20/2023
GLD Daily Chart: Gold rallied strongly today making us wonder if this double top pattern will fulfill its destiny to 270. The PMO is still in decline and the RSI is negative so for now we do expect the decline to return.
Discounts are still very elevated so there is some bearish sentiment out there that could weigh heavy on price. They aren't at extremes so it isn't necessarily time to look for a bullish reversal on sentiment readings.
GOLD MINERS (GDX) Daily Chart: Gold rallied and that pushed GDX higher on the day. We still believe they will fall further as participation has dropped off and both the Silver and Golden Cross Indexes are below their signal lines. We think there is more downside to absorb here.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 2/27/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 3/18/2025
USO Daily Chart: As we expected, Crude Oil is reversing after hitting a strong resistance zone. This failed to confirm the bullish double bottom pattern. The pattern won't officially be busted until we get a breakdown below the two bottoms. We'll have to reevaluate when price gets close to that level. We are looking for more downside here.
Good Luck & Good Trading!
Erin Swenlin and Carl Swenlin
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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