The Dow took its time, but it did log a PMO crossover BUY signal. Yesterday was the SPY. We have a clear symmetrical triangle formation now on the Dow. These are continuation patterns so the expectation is an upside breakout. Note that the Dow hasn't even come close to challenging gap resistance. I also have to add that there is a reverse divergence with the OBV. Despite plenty of volume coming in to give the OBV a new high, price wasn't able to muster a higher high. Good news for all of the indexes would be much lower volume on a down day.
DP INDEX SCOREBOARDS:
TODAY'S Broad Market Action:
One WEEK Results:
Top 10 from ETF Tracker:
Bottom 10 from ETF Tracker:
On Friday, the DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. Monday through Thursday the DecisionPoint Alert daily report is abbreviated and covers changes for the day.
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Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
One WEEK Results:
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/8/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/8/2020
SPY Daily Chart: I'm still considering an ascending triangle pattern here. The Dow has a symmetrical triangle. In both cases, the expectation is an upside breakout. We just got the PMO BUY signal in for the SPY yesterday. Although we saw a decline today, I note that volume pulled way back and that actually is a positive.
Climactic Market Indicators: No climactic readings today. With volume pulling back on the decline and the VIX above its moving average on the inverted scale, I feel less threatened by today's decline.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is UP and the condition is OVERBOUGHT. Based upon the STO ranges, market bias is BULLISH. STOs are rising strongly which also suggests a breakout ahead. They are getting overbought though.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The Silver Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 20EMA > 50EMA) and Golden Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 50EMA > 200EMA) continue higher which is bullish. In fact, the SCI is about to have a positive crossover. The BPI decelerated a bit today but is still rising.
The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is SOMEWHAT OVERBOUGHT. With most of the ITBM/ITVM readings since the end of April being above the zero lines, the market bias is BULLISH. All of these indicators are rising and bullish.
CONCLUSION: The indicators are all bullish right now so I'll stay in line with them and stay bullish.
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 5/28/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 7/10/2020
UUP Daily Chart: Another bounce just in time before really breaking down. This certainly could be the place for another upside swing, but I don't like the PMO top so far below the zero line in addition to the PMO SELL signal.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/24/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/8/2019
GOLD Daily Chart: While the rising trend is becoming somewhat compromised, price is holding above the 20-EMA. I do not like the PMO turning down, but the RSI is healthy enough and we saw a small premium on PHYS which tells me there is still demand.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: I realigned the rising bottoms trendline and determined that Miners haven't lost their rising trend despite the pullback. The RSI remains positive and price is staying well above its 20-EMA. The other indicators tell us that the components of GDX are still in very good standing.
CRUDE OIL ($WTIC)
The oil market is under severe pressure due to a lack of demand, and we do not believe that USO is an appropriate investment vehicle at this time. Until further notice we will use $WTIC to track the oil market. Since this is a continuous contract dataset, it doesn't "play well" with our Trend Models, and we will not report Trend Model signals for oil.
$WTIC Daily Chart: Yesterday's comments still apply:
"Price has been unable to break above $42. The 200-EMA is posing stout resistance. The RSI is trending lower now and the PMO has yet to turn up so I'm not expecting a breakout yet."
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/26/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/2/2019
TLT Daily Chart: Yesterday's comments still apply:
"Bonds are remaining in a rising trend and the RSI is quite healthy. I would look for a challenge of overhead resistance around $170."
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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