The Dollar triggered a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal today. I'll cover it in the section on the Dollar. It was a high flying morning, but investors began selling off after lunch and quickly took back all of the previous gains and then some to create a loss on the day. You can see that the RSI and PMO both warned of this end of day sell-off. I note for the bulls that support did hold at the intraday highs from Tuesday and Wednesday.
The intraday chart for S&P600 shows that small-caps took it on the chin today. They never found positive territory and finished in the bottom ten on our ETF Tracker. A market rally needs to be supported by more than just large-cap indexes.
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TODAY'S Broad Market Action:
Past WEEK Results:
Top 10 from ETF Tracker:
Bottom 10 from ETF Tracker:
On Friday, the DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. Monday through Thursday the DecisionPoint Alert daily report is abbreviated and covers changes for the day.
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Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
One WEEK Results:
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/8/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 3/19/2020
SPY Daily Chart: I like seeing the December 2019 correction low resistance line being broken, but the collapse at the end of the day leaves me less impressed. The PMO is rising but is definitely overbought for the SPY which tends to have a range of +2 to -2. Volume fell today which I would take a positive given the pullback at the end of the day.
Climactic Market Indicators: No climactic readings today. I do note that the VIX has topped again on the inverted scale and that usually signals a decline in the next day or two.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The ST trend is UP and the market condition is SOMEWHAT OVERBOUGHT based upon the Swenlin Trading Oscillator (STO) readings. The STOs topped today and that has been a fairly accurate signal that price will top as well. The %PMOs Rising topped today as well.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The Silver Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 20EMA > 50EMA) and the Golden Cross Index (percent of SPX stocks 50EMA > 200EMA) are rising. All of these indicators are bullish. The BPI is now rising past its previous top and that avoids a negative divergence.
The IT trend is UP and the market condition is NEUTRAL based upon the ITBM and ITVM. Like the BPI above, the ITVM and %PMO Xover Buy Signals have risen high enough to avoid a negative divergence with price when they do eventually top.
CONCLUSION: The ST trend is UP and IT trend is UP. Market condition based on ST indicators and IT indicators is NEUTRAL to SOMEWHAT OVERBOUGHT. We did get a buying initiation this morning but the bottom fell out at the end of the day. Given declining VIX and STOs, I would look for a pullback in the next few days. Intermediate-term indicators are quite favorable so I wouldn't be looking for a crash on the pullback.
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 5/28/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/25/2018
UUP Daily Chart: The 20-EMA dropped below the 50-EMA to trigger an IT Trend Model Neutral signal. Had the crossover occurred below the 200-EMA, it would've been a SELL signal. Price has finally broken support that has been holding since late March. The PMO has turned negative, but it is now near-term oversold. The decline today happened with quite well-above average volume, so even though price has an opportunity to bounce off the 200-EMA, the PMO is still declining quickly so I don't have much confidence that the 200-EMA will hold as support.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 12/26/2019
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/8/2019
GOLD Daily Chart: Gold preserved its rising trend with a very short-term breakout (best seen in the thumbnail). The PMO is decelerating and I find that bounce off the rising trendline as very bullish. I suspect Gold will begin rising again.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: Miners bounced nicely even before reaching support. The internals are still strong based on the SCI and GCI. I like that the BPI has stopped declining. I would consider this an okay entry point. The PMO doesn't thrill me. I like to have it at least rising before getting in.
CRUDE OIL ($WTIC)
The oil market is under severe pressure due to a lack of demand, and we do not believe that USO is an appropriate investment vehicle at this time. Until further notice we will use $WTIC to track the oil market. Since this is a continuous contract dataset, it doesn't "play well" with our Trend Models, and we will not report Trend Model signals for oil.
$WTIC Daily Chart: Yesterday's comments still apply: "Overhead resistance is holding at $35 which I suspect will continue. Despite what I think is a stop for the rally in Oil, $WTIC had a "silver cross" 20/50-EMA positive crossover that gives us an IT Trend Model BUY signal. Carl doesn't feel that $WTIC plays nice with our Trend Models so you can take it for what it is worth. I see the PMO beginning to plateau so I am not bullish on Oil."
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/22/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/2/2019
TLT Daily Chart: Head and shoulders pattern still hasn't executed, but the PMO suggests that it will.
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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
Helpful DecisionPoint Links (Can Be Found on DecisionPoint.com Links Page):
DecisionPoint Shared ChartList and DecisionPoint Chart Gallery
Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)
Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)