As "Get Smart" Agent Maxwell Smart said, "Missed it by thaaaat much!" Today's high was above yesterday's and therefore the rising wedge on the daily chart (2nd chart below) hasn't technically been confirmed. The rising trend on today's trading was solid and since we haven't set a top, we don't have to worry about a rising wedge on the 10 min bar chart.
TODAY'S Broad Market Action:
Past WEEK Results:
Top 10 from ETF Tracker:
Bottom 10 from ETF Tracker:
On Friday, the DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. Monday through Thursday the DecisionPoint Alert daily report is abbreviated and covers changes for the day.
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Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
One WEEK Results:
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 2/28/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 3/19/2020
SPY Daily Chart: Unlike yesterday, we closed on a positive note. I do see that price has been stopped right at the August lows so that could be difficult overhead resistance to move past. My understanding is that technically the SPX was up more than 20% off the bear market low and thus, many are calling an end to the bear market and a beginning of a bull market. We are experiencing VERY high volatility, I am expecting to see market action similar to the August consolidation only on a much wider scale given the swings we are experiencing and likely will continue to experience.
Climactic Market Indicators: Today we did see some climactic readings on the Net A-D numbers. This could be a possible buying exhaustion. It came on a decrease in total volume as well. Normally I'd chalk it up to holiday trading in advance of Easter weekend, but nothing is normal anymore and most are not traveling or even unhooked from their computer. (Why do you think I've begun short-term trading lol) We are now at an important short-term resistance level. The VIX is continuing see lower readings and consequently the upper Bollinger Band is rising. Typically when the VIX hits that upper Band, prices turn lower.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The ST trend is UP and the market condition is NEUTRAL based upon the Swenlin Trading Oscillator (STO) readings. I've annotated the typical range for the STOs to give us a visual clue when we are seeing very overbought readings. I still consider them neutral, but they are getting overbought. Since they are still rising strongly, I'd say the short-term is still bullish.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The Silver Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 20EMA > 50EMA) and the Golden Cross Index (percent of SPX stocks 50EMA > 200EMA) are both rising. I've begun to pay more attention to the Bullish Percent Index (BPI). I've added this ChartSchool link to the list at the bottom of every article for those who wish to read more about this indicator. We need to watch for declining tops on the BPI for possible warning of a new decline. Currently it is rising and is setting a new high.
The IT trend is UP and the market condition is OVERSOLD based upon all of the readings on the indicators below. Excellent look on the IT indicators. No complaints here.
CONCLUSION: The ST is UP and IT trend is also UP. Market condition based on ST indicators is NEUTRAL and based on IT indicators is OVERSOLD. Climactic readings were on the positive side. We have a nice rising trend in all timeframes right now and both short-term and intermediate-term indicators are bullish. I have to expect higher prices, but I am concerned about the possible rising wedge developing and the very strong resistance that the SPY has just hit.
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IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/9/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/25/2018
UUP Daily Chart: The PMO turned down below its signal line in overbought territory. $27 is holding up as support and we are seeing a short-term rising trend (clearest in the thumbnail), but overall, I'm still bearish on the Dollar.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 12/26/2019
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/8/2019
GOLD Daily Chart: Gold didn't do much today. The PMO is rising nicely despite the failure to hold the breakout from Mon/Tue. I still like it and full disclosure, I own GLD.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: Yesterday's comments till apply: "The Silver Cross Index had a positive crossover today in oversold territory. The thumbnail shows a nice short-term rising trend. It closed just above the 50-EMA and traded above the 200-EMA again. With the SCI positive crossover, I am looking for GDX to continue higher. The $26 support level is something to pay attention to given the multiple touches from last Fall."
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: Neutral as of 1/27/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 2/3/2020
USO Daily Chart: I was able to enter USO today. The PMO has a nice BUY signal and it is not decelerating despite the declining tops on the most recent trading. If you decide to enter, consider your position size carefully as the strongest area of support is 25% lower than the current price. While I'm expecting it to move higher, a stop is a wise decision.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/22/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/2/2019
TLT Daily Chart: I mention being careful with bonds due to the breakdown from the short-term rising trend channel. The PMO has very nearly triggered a SELL signal in very overbought territory. As I said yesterday, that 20-EMA needs to hold. If I had been holding this one from the March lows, I would have a stop at the 20-EMA. What I had noted as a head and shoulders formation on the 20-year treasury yield has now disintegrated in my opinion. Yields are rising and may continue to and that is bad for bonds.
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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
Happy Charting! - Erin
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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