Healthcare garnered two new BUY signals! An Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal triggered on a Silver Cross of the 20/50-EMAs. Additionally, Healthcare (XLV) had a Golden Cross (50-EMA > 200-EMA). I'll cover the chart in the Sector section below.
The NDX triggered an Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal today as well. If you look at the Scoreboard below the chart, it is the first of the four Scoreboard indexes to accomplish this. Technology has actually been a great performer even with the bear market environment. The PMO is rising. Overhead resistance would be around 8900. I notice a short-term positive divergence between OBV bottoms and price bottoms. These generally precede a rally.
Today I recorded "WealthWise Women" for StockCharts TV. Mary Ellen and I talked about how to find choice stocks and what we do to find entries and exits. Don't miss it! Here is the link to the YouTube video.
TODAY'S Broad Market Action:
Past WEEK Results:
Top 10 from ETF Tracker:
Bottom 10 from ETF Tracker:
On Friday, the DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. Monday through Thursday the DecisionPoint Alert daily report is abbreviated and covers changes for the day.
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Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
One WEEK Results:
As I noted in the opening, we had two new BUY signals come in on XLV. This has certainly been one of the best sectors during this pandemic for good reason. The biotechs and pharmaceuticals have been strong performers. Below is the chart of XLV from our DP Sector Chartlist which you can reach from the "Blogs and Links" page. The links are in the upper lefthand corner. The indicators look pretty good. At first glance I didn't like the negative crossover on the BPI and declining percentages on stocks above their 20/50-EMAs, but in the thumbnail I see they are decelerating or turning up. The rising wedge has technically executed but like the SPY, it hasn't recaptured its original rising trendline that forms the bottom of the wedge. A Golden Cross triggered an LT Trend Model BUY signal and a Silver Cross triggered an IT Trend Model BUY signal. Overall the sector looks healthy (no pun intended).
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 2/28/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 3/19/2020
SPY Daily Chart: As Carl noted in this morning's DecisionPoint Show, the market is showing a bullish bias despite the negative configuration of the EMAs. Basically, the market doesn't really want to go down. It started off with a bang and closed the day on a whimper. I never like to see a close near the low for the day. This sets up a 'shooting star' candle. That is bearish coming off a rally. The good news is that the VIX is still moving upward and above the average on the inverted scale. Volume levels seem to be tapering off slightly (easiest to see in thumbnail) and I prefer to see lower volume on a decline or a day like this when price fell off its highs.
Climactic Market Indicators: Nothing to see here. No climactic readings. I do note that the PMO has made it into positive territory and is rising still.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The ST trend is UP and the market condition is NEUTRAL based upon the Swenlin Trading Oscillator (STO) readings. The STOs are continuing to rise so I have to remain bullish in the short term. These indicators have been very accurate.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The Silver Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 20EMA > 50EMA) and the Golden Cross Index (percent of SPX stocks 50EMA > 200EMA) are both rising. The BPI has bottomed which is positive. The SCI continues to make its way back higher in similar fashion to early 2019. The GCI is taking its time, but that is understandable given how oversold the market became with nearly all SPX components on LT Trend SELL signals (50-EMA < 200-EMA).
The IT trend is UP and the market condition is NEUTRAL based upon the ITBM and ITVM. Not much movement on these indicators. They're too indecisive to really make much of them right now.
CONCLUSION: The ST is UP and IT trend is also UP. Market condition based on ST indicators and IT indicators is NEUTRAL. The market closed on a low and typically that is bad news for the next day of trading. The short-term indicators are positive overall but I'm not entirely convinced we will rally into the weekend.
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IT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/12/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/25/2018
UUP Daily Chart: Not much to say here. The PMO suggests upside potential, but price action has been bounded in a consolidation zone. I was looking at a possible double-bottom, but this week's price action isn't convincing.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 12/26/2019
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/8/2019
GOLD Daily Chart: Gold is continuing to rise. The PMO is overbought so I am beginning question whether it will be able to recapture the rising trendline. For now, the PMO is rising and price bounced off the 20-EMA as well as the 1700 support area. It is positive overall.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: Like the market GDX closed near its lows for the day, but with that beautiful continuation gap it still managed to close up 2.8%. The flag formation executed yesterday and it seems it is off to reach the measured target at about $40. I like the Miners, but hate that it requires "chasing" to invest now.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: Neutral as of 1/27/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 2/3/2020
USO Daily Chart: Finally a little life for USO. I still wouldn't touch it. That PMO is ugly and now it looks like a symmetrical triangle in the thumbnail. That's a continuation pattern so we should expect a breakdown.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/22/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/2/2019
TLT Daily Chart: Bond ETFs have been making an appearance in my scan results for DP Diamonds. I'm not a fan. The PMO has two tops below the signal line and is sitting in overbought territory. Notice in the thumbnail, OBV tops are declining and price tops are rising. That's a negative divergence.
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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
Happy Charting! - Erin
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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