Oil ($WTIC) actually hit an all-time historic low intraday. If you look at the chart below you'll see that price dropped below the 1986 lows, setting an intraday record. I wrote about Oil yesterday and concluded that with the major glut in supply and demand at historic lows, it will be some time before this area of the market rights itself. I hadn't anticipated another 25% drop for USO today. Not even the bargain hunters and bottom fishers seem interested.
I will be on the new StockCharts TV show "Your Daily Five" tomorrow! It's a 10 minute review of the top five charts I'm watching right at that moment. Here is a quick overview of how it works. I'll be sending out the YouTube video when it is posted later tomorrow.
TODAY'S Broad Market Action:
Past WEEK Results:
Top 10 from ETF Tracker:
Bottom 10 from ETF Tracker:
On Friday, the DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. Monday through Thursday the DecisionPoint Alert daily report is abbreviated and covers changes for the day.
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Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
One WEEK Results:
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 2/28/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 3/19/2020
SPY Daily Chart: The rising wedge executed today as the market digested the demise of Oil. I've annotated some important areas of possible support in the very short term. Price did hold support along the 20-EMA, but I suspect that won't hold.
Climactic Market Indicators: Today we saw more climactic readings. The negativity increased. I suspect this is an initiation climax (meaning more downside). We need to start seeing these negative readings either contract, or see positive readings before getting excited about a reversal here. There wasn't frenzied selling based on volume which only increased slightly. The PMO is decelerating, but is still rising. I don't want to see it top beneath the zero line.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The ST trend is UP and the market condition is NEUTRAL based upon the Swenlin Trading Oscillator (STO) readings. The STOs accelerated lower but are not yet oversold. They are telling me to expect more downside. They have been exceptional leading indicators. Their acceleration is bearish for the short term.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The Silver Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 20EMA > 50EMA) and the Golden Cross Index (percent of SPX stocks 50EMA > 200EMA) are both rising. The BPI took a dive and caused a negative crossover. The SCI and GCI are still favorable.
The IT trend is UP and the market condition is NEUTRAL based upon the ITBM and ITVM. Both the ITBM and ITVM topped today. They haven't had negative crossovers yet, so they have time to right the ship.
CONCLUSION: The ST is UP and IT trend is also UP. Market condition based on ST indicators and IT indicators is NEUTRAL. Short-term indicators are decidedly negative. I suspect we will see more follow-through on this decline. There are many levels of support available for the SPY on the way down with the first being 265. I suspect that won't hold. I'm looking at the pullback out of the rising wedge to bring price at least to 255 on the SPY.
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IT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/12/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/25/2018
UUP Daily Chart: We're seeing an upside breakout from the symmetrical triangle. Given that the PMO is starting to rise and we did see that tiny breakout, my bearish expectations are being curbed.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 12/26/2019
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/8/2019
GOLD Daily Chart: Gold broke down today and closed below 1700. It did manage to close above the 20-EMA, but that PMO is very negative. On the plus side, seeing a discount on PHYS tells me that there still is interest in the metal.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: Yesterday's comments still apply: "Gold Miners are continuing to digest a massive rally. The improvement on the Silver Cross Index is good, but I keep waiting for the Gold Cross Index to put in a bottom. It's close. In the thumbnail, you can see a flag formation, so I'm looking for an upside breakout."
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: Neutral as of 1/27/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 2/3/2020
USO Daily Chart: I am still trying to digest this chart. In just over three months USO has lost nearly 80%. I was asked if USO would be doing a reverse split. I have no idea, but this is usually when you might see one. The PMO triggered a SELL signal to add insult to injury.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/22/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/2/2019
TLT Daily Chart: I talked about a bearish double-top far sooner than I should have. Textbooks tell you it isn't a chart pattern until it executes. Well, this one hadn't even formed. TLT climbed above short-term overhead resistance today and the PMO is once again bottoming. It's overbought but could move higher.
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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
Happy Charting! - Erin
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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