Today the Nasdaq Composite ETF (ONEQ) 20-day EMA crossed down through the 50-day EMA (Dark Cross), generating an IT Trend Model Neutral Signal. Major support was lost, but we got a nice bounce off the 200-day EMA that is encouraging for next week. Participation is very low below our bullish 50% threshold so there isn't a lot of strength under the hood to power price upward. We did see Stochastics tip upward.
On the weekly chart we can see that horizontal support has been penetrated, but there is rising trend line support is a few points below.
__________
Also today, the Regional Banking ETF (KRE) 20-day EMA crossed down through the 50-day EMA (Dark Cross), generating an IT Trend Model NEUTRAL Signal. We are seeing a small rally develop. If price gets above the 50-day EMA it could switch this signal to a buy. Participation is exceedingly low and it hasn't improved much with this small rally. The PMO is now in negative territory. We see some opportunity here with the rally, but we don't think it will get much further given low participation.
The weekly chart shows that KRE went parabolic last October, but it has since set a less accelerated rising trend line. The most recent price top is a lower top and is potentially the beginning of a falling trend. It isn't surprising to see a rally off this trendline but as we mentioned above, we don't think it will produce much.
The DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the Stock Market, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. The DecisionPoint Alert daily report (Monday through Thursday) is abbreviated and gives updates on the Weekly Wrap assessments.
Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on our YouTube channel here!
MARKET/SPX SECTOR/INDUSTRY GROUP INDEXES
Change Today: 
Change for the Week:
CLICK HERE for Carl's annotated Market Index, Sector, and Industry Group charts.
THE MARKET (S&P 500)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 8/14/2024
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/29/2023
SPY 10-Minute Chart: The market was up most of the day, but really popped to finish trading today. It has a confirmed bullish double bottom and a very strongly rising 10-minute PMO. Stochastics are above 80 indicating internal strength in the very short term.
SPY Daily Chart: This rebound came at a good time as price is just hitting support. The PMO is still in decline but has definitely decelerated its decline.
The VIX penetrated its lower Bollinger Band yet again today and does imply we could get some followthrough on today's rally. Stochastics are rising again and have left territory below 20 so we are seeing a touch of internal strength. The relative strength line to RSP is still trending lower so there is mega-cap weakness hanging around.
Here is the latest recording from 2/24. Click HERE to get the link to video library.
SPY Weekly Chart: Price dropped below the shorter-term rising bottoms trendline but has stopped at the next rising bottoms trendline out of the late 2023 low. This is where we should look for a possible rebound. The chart still isn't bullish given the bearish rising wedge and falling PMO. We also detect a bearish double top.
SPY Monthly Chart: We have a parabolic advance on the monthly chart and we know that these beg for correction.
New 52-Week Highs/Lows: New Highs expanded on the rally, but we are still operating under a negative divergence with price tops. New Lows did expand on the rally. The High-Low Differential is still rising modestly.
Climax Analysis: There were three strong climax readings today from our four relevant indicators, and SPX Total Volume was 162% of the one-year average daily volume. This gives us an upside initiation climax.
*A climax is a one-day event when market action generates very high readings in, primarily, breadth and volume indicators. We also include the VIX, watching for it to penetrate outside the Bollinger Band envelope. The vertical dotted lines mark climax days -- red for downside climaxes, and green for upside. Climaxes are at their core exhaustion events; however, at price pivots they may be initiating a change of trend.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is DOWN and the condition is SOMEWHAT OVERSOLD.
Both the Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) turned up today with the STO-B moving back into positive territory. These advances came out of somewhat oversold conditions so we see this as encouraging. Participation moved back above our bullish 50% threshold and we saw more rising PMOs within the index.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL.
The ITBM turned up today, but the ITVM didn't quite make it. We see the reversal as good news. We also saw a few more PMO BUY Signals within the index. That indicator is still reading below our bullish 50% threshold though. Given we have more rising PMOs, that should change.
_______
PARTICIPATION TABLES: The following tables summarize participation for the major market indexes and sectors. The 1-Week Change columns inject a dynamic aspect to the presentation. There are three groups: Major Market Indexes, Miscellaneous Industry Groups, and the 11 S&P 500 Sectors.
We still see that most of the IT Biases are in bear territory. This means that most are seeing higher Golden Cross Index readings versus Silver Cross Index readings.
The worst bias belongs to Financials (XLF) which still have a fairly low Silver Cross Index reading. It lost more percentage points this week so the picture is not improving.
This table is sorted by SCI values. This gives a clear picture of strongest to weakest index/sector in terms of intermediate-term participation.
Notice that almost half of the Silver Cross Index readings are below our 50% bullish threshold. There is still weakness visible in the intermediate term.
Utilities hold the highest reading, but made no improvements this week. They are beginning to turn over.
This table is sorted by GCI values. This gives a clear picture of strongest to weakest index/sector in terms of long-term participation.
Consumer Staples (XLP) gained seven percentage points on the Golden Cross Index (the most of all members) and a huge increase (the most of all members) to the Silver Cross Index. This sector is still bullish and given these improvements, is likely to continue moving higher.
Regional Banks (KRE) hold the highest GCI reading, but saw no improvement. Notice that the Silver Cross Index lost 17 points! We also have the new Dark Cross so this is a group in trouble.
PARTICIPATION CHART (S&P 500): The following chart objectively shows the depth and trend of participation for the SPX in two time frames.
- Intermediate-Term - the Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on IT Trend Model BUY signals (20-EMA > 50-EMA). The opposite of the Silver Cross is a "Dark Cross" -- those stocks are, at the very least, in a correction.
- Long-Term - the Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on LT Trend Model BUY signals (50-EMA > 200-EMA). The opposite of a Golden Cross is the "Death Cross" -- those stocks are in a bear market.
The market bias is BEARISH in the intermediate and long terms.
This week the Silver Cross Index dropped below its signal line suggesting internal weakness. However, it did turn up and with improving participation, it could conceivably move higher from here toward a Bullish Shift across the signal line. The Golden Cross Index is angling up and could also see a Bullish Shift across the signal line. We really need participation numbers to move higher if we are going to see those Shifts. Both the Silver Cross Index and Golden Cross Index are below the signal lines so the IT and LT Biases still read BEARISH.
BIAS Assessment: The following table expresses the current BIAS of various price indexes based upon the relationship of the Silver Cross Index to its 10-day EMA (intermediate-term), and of the Golden Cross Index to its 20-day EMA (long-term). When the Index is above the EMA it is bullish, and it is bearish when the Index is below the EMA. The BIAS does not imply that any particular action should be taken. It is information to be used in the decision process.
The items with highlighted borders indicate that the BIAS changed today.
*****************************************************************************************************
CONCLUSION: . The market looked very bearish this week, but it ended on a high note. Today's late day rally spoke volumes, at least to our indicators. The STOs turned up as did the ITVM. Most significant is today's upside initiation climax that portends a continuation of today's upside reversal. We like the market's chances to see some success next week. Apparently tariff talk isn't as upsetting to the market as we might have thought. We won't be looking for all-time highs at this point, more likely a snapback that would cover some of this week's losses. We'll be watching closely to see if the relative strength line to RSP breaks the declining trend. That would be a high sign that all-time highs could be within reach again.
Erin is __% long, __% short. (This is intended as information, not a recommendation.)
*****************************************************************************************************
CALENDAR
Have you subscribed the DecisionPoint Diamonds yet? DP does the work for you by providing handpicked stocks/ETFs from exclusive DP scans! Add it with a discount! Contact support@decisionpoint.com for more information!
BITCOIN
Bitcoin Daily Chart: Bitcoin lost important support this week and executed the bearish double top. The minimum downside target of the pattern would take price to about 75,000 and that seems a reasonable objective given the declining PMO. We do note that today's OHLC bar is a shooting star so we could see some rally next week. At this point, we suspect that price will move back into the trading range we were in prior to the election. That would mean much lower prices for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart: The large topping formation with a double top has executed as expected. 75,000 is a very strong area of support so that is where we would look for a possible rebound. For now we expect it to move lower.
BITCOIN ETFs
Today:
This Week:
INTEREST RATES
Yields are in a steady decline and we suspect that will continue given the strong declining trends. Support is getting closer for some yields so we'll be on the lookout for a reversal after they've fallen a bit further.
The Yield Curve Chart from StockCharts.com shows us the inversions taking place. The red line should move higher from left to right. Inversions are occurring where it moves downward.
10-YEAR T-BOND YIELD
$TNX lost strong support this week at the 200-day EMA. Indicators are still in decline so we are looking for a drop to the next support level. At that time we'll start looking for a possible upside reversal.
10-Year Bond Yield Weekly Chart: $TNX is reentering the declining trend after a dropping from strong resistance at the 2024 high. The weekly PMO is nearing a Crossover SELL Signal so we should look for more downside.
MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES (30-Yr)**
**We watch the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate, because, for the most part, people buy homes based upon the maximum monthly payment they can afford. As rates rise, a fixed monthly payment will carry a smaller mortgage amount, which shuts many buyers out of the market, and potential sellers will experience pressure to lower prices (to no effect so far).
--
This week the 30-Year Fixed Rate changed from 6.85 to 6.76.
Here is a 50-year chart for better perspective.
BONDS (TLT)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 2/25/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 12/13/2024
TLT Daily Chart: With yields on the decline Bond funds are enjoying quite a rally. We would look for even higher prices, at least until we hit overhead resistance. That will be the area where the rubber will meet the road on this rally. For now look for that level of resistance at 94.50 to be tested.
The breakout from the intermediate-term declining trend channel was very bullish, but we do see a resistance zone arriving soon.
TLT Weekly Chart: We have a nice rally off support at the prior 2024 low. The weekly PMO is nearing a Crossover BUY Signal. The next level of resistance on the weekly chart looks very sturdy at about 100. There is still a slight declining trend to price, but this rally looks pretty good.
TLT Monthly Chart: We see a consolidation zone on the monthly chart. It does look like a good price bottom. With the monthly PMO accelerating higher, we have to wonder if near-term resistance will be a problem on the daily chart.
DOLLAR (UUP)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 10/9/2024
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/25/2023
UUP Daily Chart: The double top on the Dollar is disintegrating as price rallies off the confirmation line of the pattern. Given tariff talks, there is a good chance the Dollar will continue to strengthen. The PMO has turned back up and the RSI is positive. Stochastics are also rising strongly so we see more upside ahead for the Dollar.
UUP Weekly Chart: This looks like a good area for a reversal as it has reached the top of the prior bearish rising wedge. The weekly PMO is decelerating and looks interested is surging above the signal line (bottom above the signal line). The declining trend is still intact in the shorter term, but this looks very encouraging.
UUP Monthly Chart: The Dollar is in a near vertical rally and that typically doesn't end well, but with tariffs out there in the future, we think that we'll see the Dollar continue to rise. The monthly PMO is very bullish. The monthly RSI is technically overbought, but again we think the Dollar will rally further and get more overbought before it is all said and done.
GOLD
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 12/23/2024
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 10/20/2023
GLD Daily Chart: With the Dollar rallying, Gold is struggling. It was already overbought and toppy. It is at strong support right now but the outlook for the Dollar is too good to expect that level to hold. There is a PMO Crossover SELL Signal and Stochastics are tumbling. We could see a breakdown below the 50-day EMA.
GLD Weekly Chart: Gold is pulling back to the parabolic arc and parabolic advances do lead to strong breakdowns. However, the weekly PMO still looks good so maybe we won't get a significant decline after all.
GLD Monthly Chart: Price is trying to go vertical on the monthly chart and the monthly RSI is very overbought. In the very long term, the correlation to the Dollar is actually positive so a rising Dollar may not be as big a problem as it could be. Still vertical advances are nearly impossible to maintain for too long so we should be careful with Gold.
GOLD MINERS Daily Chart: Gold Miners are in trouble with the decline in Gold. There is a large double top pattern developing that would be devastating if the downside target is calculated, but we won't go there at this point. We see them as bearish, but not that bearish. We expect to see a drop to 34 before this is all done. Participation continues to leave the group and the Silver Cross Index looks very bearish.
GDX Weekly Chart: You can see that if this double top pattern were to be confirmed with a drop below 33, the downside target would take price close to 22! Gold looks bearish, but not that bearish so GDX should be spared that kind of decline. We can also see that despite the drop, the weekly PMO is still rising on a Crossover BUY Signal.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 12/24/2024
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/10/2025
USO Daily Chart: Crude Oil is in a declining trend and we are looking for that to continue particularly given it is this administration's primary goal to lower fossil fuel prices. Stochastics are rising again, but we believe the declining trend will prevail with even lower prices.
Strong support doesn't arrive until price hits 70.
USO Weekly Chart: We do have a bullish ascending triangle on the weekly chart, but we aren't optimistic given the fundamentals right now. The weekly PMO is nearing a Crossover SELL Signal. We certainly should see the rising trendline to at least be tested.
WTIC Monthly Chart: We have a strong declining trend on the monthly chart. Support looks pretty good, but with the strongly declining monthly PMO, there are likely to be problems holding that level. Again the administration is going to be working very hard to have price drop below that level of support.
Good Luck & Good Trading!
Erin Swenlin and Carl Swenlin
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin
(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.
NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
Helpful DecisionPoint Links:
DecisionPoint Alert Chart List
DecisionPoint Golden Cross/Silver Cross Index Chart List
DecisionPoint Sector Chart List
Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)