Today the Regional Banking ETF (KRE) 20-day EMA crossed down through the 50-day EMA (Dark Cross) above the 200-day EMA, generating an IT Trend Model NEUTRAL Signal. We should note that because of a very narrow trading range, there have been six (6) 20/50EMA crossovers in the last two months, so this signal may not lead to a sell-off. We wouldn't buy the dip on this one either.
The DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the Stock Market, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. The DecisionPoint Alert daily report (Monday through Thursday) is abbreviated and gives updates on the Weekly Wrap assessments.
Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on our YouTube channel here!
MARKET/INDUSTRY GROUP/SECTOR INDEXES
CLICK HERE for Carl's annotated Market Index, Sector, and Industry Group charts.
THE MARKET (S&P 500)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 11/14/2023
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/29/2023
SPY Daily Chart: The boredom of this trading range will end soon. SPY is about one percent below the all-time high.
Here is the latest recording:
S&P 500 New 52-Week Highs/Lows: The trend of New Highs continues down.
Climax* Analysis: There were no climax readings today.
*A climax is a one-day event when market action generates very high readings in, primarily, breadth and volume indicators. We also include the VIX, watching for it to penetrate outside the Bollinger Band envelope. The vertical dotted lines mark climax days -- red for downside climaxes, and green for upside. Climaxes are at their core exhaustion events; however, at price pivots they may be initiating a change of trend.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is DOWN and the condition is NEUTRAL.
The STOs have ticked up again, but they are trending up in the very short term. There is still the potential for a new rally in this time frame.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL.
The ITBM and ITVM are falling and about to go negative. The Percent PMO Crossover BUY Signals is deep into bear market levels.
PARTICIPATION: The following chart objectively shows the depth and trend of participation in two time frames.
- Intermediate-Term - the Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on IT Trend Model BUY signals (20-EMA > 50-EMA). The opposite of the Silver Cross is a "Dark Cross" -- those stocks are, at the very least, in a correction.
- Long-Term - the Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on LT Trend Model BUY signals (50-EMA > 200-EMA). The opposite of a Golden Cross is the "Death Cross" -- those stocks are in a bear market.
The Silver Cross Index (SCI) is below its 10-day EMA, so even though the SCI is at a bullish 80%, its bias is bearish. Participation now implies that the SCI will likely drop to 58%.
BIAS Assessment: The following table expresses the current BIAS of various price indexes based upon the relationship of the Silver Cross Index to its 10-day EMA (intermediate-term), and of the Golden Cross Index to its 20-day EMA (long-term). When the Index is above the EMA it is bullish, and it is bearish when the Index is below the EMA. The BIAS does not imply that any particular action should be taken. It is information to be used in the decision process.
The items with highlighted borders indicate that the BIAS changed today.
**************************************************************************************
CONCLUSION: Yesterday we got a sharp sell-off, and today we got a sharp rally. The market remains in a narrow trading range, and we wonder when it will finally exit the range and in which direction. Intermediate-term indicators still favor a move to the downside, but short-term indicators favor a rally in that time frame. If the short-term internals move the market in a positive direction, it could turn the intermediate-term internals positive. Conversely, the intermediate-term internals could turn the short-term direction down. Walking in circles. Such fun.
Erin is 75% long, 0% short.
**************************************************************************************
Have you subscribed the DecisionPoint Diamonds yet? DP does the work for you by providing handpicked stocks/ETFs from exclusive DP scans! Add it with a discount! Contact support@decisionpoint.com for more information!
BITCOIN
Bitcoin is having trouble breaking out of the triangle formation.
BITCOIN ETFs
INTEREST RATES
Yields are rising within the range set during the last 18 months or so. We are currently expecting that range to hold for several months, or until the Fed does something. Today's CPI news pushed yields higher.
The Yield Curve Chart from StockCharts.com shows us the inversions taking place. The red line should move higher from left to right. Inversions are occurring where it moves downward.
10-YEAR T-BOND YIELD
The advance slowed quite a bit today. Possible snapback toward the point of breakout coming.
BONDS (TLT)
IT Trend Model: SELL as of 3/20/2024
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 1/19/2022
TLT Daily Chart: We note that the final TLT March top failed to reach the declining tops line, which tells us that it is losing strength, and that the decline may accelerate.
DOLLAR (UUP)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/23/2024
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/25/2023
UUP Daily Chart: Price tried, but failed, to escape the rising wedge today.
UUP has reached the overhead resistance line drawn across the 2022 high, which may be the cause of the stall.
GOLD
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 10/23/2023
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 10/20/2023
GLD Daily Chart: GLD reached the top of its rising trend channel Tuesday. A one-day pullback was reversed today as GLD made new all-time highs. Now we should look for price to break out of the rising trend channel.
GOLD Daily Chart: The parabolic arc was violated yesterday, but today GLD moved higher, so we adjusted the arc.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: Participation for Gold Miners is excellent, with all indexes being in the 90s. Today's bottom may be setting a steeper angle of ascent.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 2/12/2024
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 2/27/2024
USO Daily Chart: In the last four trading days USO has corrected back to the rising trend line, which is a good thing because the eight-day advance that preceded the correction was too steep. Presumably, USO will begin another leg upward.
This month USO was turned back from the line of resistance drawn across the September top.
Good Luck & Good Trading!
Erin Swenlin and Carl Swenlin
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin
(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.
NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
Helpful DecisionPoint Links:
DecisionPoint Alert Chart List
DecisionPoint Golden Cross/Silver Cross Index Chart List
DecisionPoint Sector Chart List
Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)