Oil has finally begun to rally! It is now headed toward overhead resistance along the resistance line drawn from those June-July tops. We don't use $WTIC for our Trend Model signals for Oil (we use USO), but I do note that we have a positive 20/50-EMA crossover today on $WTIC and that is considered an intermediate-term BUY signal. I'll talk more about the Trend Model signals for Oil in its section later on in this report.
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DP INDEX SCOREBOARDS:
TODAY'S Broad Market Action:
One WEEK Results:
Top 10 from ETF Tracker:
Bottom 10 from ETF Tracker:
On Friday, the DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. Monday through Thursday the DecisionPoint Alert daily report is abbreviated and covers changes for the day.
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Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
One WEEK Results:
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/8/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/8/2020
SPY Daily Chart: Looks like another bearish engulfing candle today. The market was up earlier in the day based on perceived good news from the FOMC, but as Chairman Powell's comments continued, the market lost traction and started to slide. As Carl and I noted, the market appears poised for more sideways movement. My biggest concern now is the bearish reverse flag that has formed. The RSI remains in neutral. The PMO has decelerated, but hasn't turned up. I don't like that volume popped on a decline. The VIX fell below its EMA on the inverted scale which suggests to me more near-term weakness.
Climactic Market Indicators: No climactic readings. I've already expressed my concerns about the VIX and volume today. There is some positivity in that we did see an expansion of New Highs and positive readings on the Net A-D indicators despite a negative close.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is NEUTRAL and the condition is NEUTRAL. Based upon the STO ranges, market bias is NEUTRAL. Yesterday's comments apply:
"STOs are rising which is positive. The STO-B is now getting positive readings. %Stocks indicators were mostly unchanged."
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The following chart uses different methodologies for objectively showing the depth and trend of participation for intermediate- and long-term time frames.
- The Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on IT Trend Model BUY signals (20-EMA > 50-EMA).
- The Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on LT Trend Model BUY signals (50-EMA > 200-EMA).
- The Bullish Percent Index (BPI shows the percentage of SPX stocks on Point & Figure BUY signals.
The BPI is still rising. The GCI ticked back up today--it has been mostly flat so I am not reading too much into that.
The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL. The market bias is NEUTRAL.
I like the look of these indicators and the fact that we did see a positive crossover on the %Stocks with PMO BUY signals.
CONCLUSION: I'm not thrilled with the overall short-term picture given the VIX is starting to show higher readings and volume surged on a negative close. The indicators are rising and we did have positive readings on Net A-D so I can't get too bearish. Overall, I am looking for more sideways movement.
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 5/28/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 7/10/2020
UUP Daily Chart: Yesterday's comments still apply:
"We have a nice cup shape developing at the end of a protracted decline. Additionally there is a gap that needs covering. The declining trend in the Dollar really hasn't been broken in a meaningful way yet. The PMO is rising though and the RSI is trying to get into positive territory."
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/24/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/8/2019
GOLD Daily Chart: Yesterday's comments still apply:
"I see a bearish descending triangle on both Gold. However, you could also make a case for a symmetrical triangle on a possible flag pole which is bullish. Right now I'm watching support at 1900 closely. The PMO is turning back up and the RSI has stayed mostly positive. Additionally we are still seeing discounts on PHYS. I think Gold will continue to hold up, but I'll certainly feel better when the declining tops trendline is broken."
Full Disclosure: I own GLD.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: Yesterday's comments still apply:
"I find it especially bullish when a bearish chart pattern (in this case a descending triangle) resolves to the upside. Miners broke out of their short-term declining trend. Now t watch to see what it does with the mid-August top. Will we develop a trading range? The indicators are very bullish right now, so I suspect it will continue higher."
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: SELL as of 9/8/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 2/3/2020
USO Daily Chart: We looked at $WTIC at the beginning of today's article, now let's explore USO. Notice that we do not have a positive 20/50-EMA crossover yet. In fact, until today both EMAs were falling and separating even further. Now we have a PMO that has turned back up and an RSI that is about to move into positive territory. For USO, my upside target would be the top of the new trading channel that price has pulled itself up into.
IT Trend Model: Neutral as of 8/27/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/2/2019
TLT Daily Chart: Yesterday's comments still apply:
"We just got a PMO BUY signal on TLT. However, I'm not overly bullish here as price is struggling to get above the 20/50-EMAs. Volume was somewhat heavy on today's decline and the RSI has turned down in negative territory."
Full disclosure: I own TLT.
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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