The market moved sideways this morning, but fought to keep profits as prices headed south after lunch. Overall, price is in a trading range. We did see an influx of volume and a bounce in the last 20 minutes of trading which could mean some upside follow-through tomorrow (the SPY was up slightly +0.15% in after hours trading). The 10-minute bar chart shows the PMO stopping its decline and the RSI rebounding, yet still negative. Tomorrow we will hear from the FOMC. Nothing new is expected so I am not looking for a big move in either direction since the market has likely baked it in already.
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DP INDEX SCOREBOARDS:
TODAY'S Broad Market Action:
One WEEK Results:
Top 10 from ETF Tracker:
Bottom 10 from ETF Tracker:
On Friday, the DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. Monday through Thursday the DecisionPoint Alert daily report is abbreviated and covers changes for the day.
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Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
One WEEK Results:
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/8/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/8/2020
SPY Daily Chart: Volume continues to be slightly below the 250-EMA. I do find it interesting to see the SPY volume on a strong declining trend as we see a third day of higher prices. At this point, price is in a trading range. The RSI is neutral, but the PMO is still declining. The VIX closed just above its EMA on the inverted scale. That is somewhat positive as we do want to get it oscillating above its EMA on the inverted scale; that would indicate a more bullish bias for the market.
Climactic Market Indicators: Readings were not climactic today, but I do note that we saw more New Highs again today which is certainly positive.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is NEUTRAL and the condition is NEUTRAL. Based upon the STO ranges, market bias is NEUTRAL. STOs are rising which is positive. The STO-B is now getting positive readings. %Stocks indicators were mostly unchanged.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The following chart uses different methodologies for objectively showing the depth and trend of participation for intermediate- and long-term time frames.
- The Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on IT Trend Model BUY signals (20-EMA > 50-EMA).
- The Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on LT Trend Model BUY signals (50-EMA > 200-EMA).
- The Bullish Percent Index (BPI shows the percentage of SPX stocks on Point & Figure BUY signals.
The BPI continued its slight rise. The SCI and GCI aren't nearly so positive as they point lower.
The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL. The market bias is NEUTRAL.
These indicators are still rising but we still only have 25% of the SP500 stocks with positive momentum.
CONCLUSION: It was an ordinary market day. Nothing really happened with the indicators except to say many are continuing to climb, albeit slightly. I suspect we will continue to experience some doldrums. The FOMC will be releasing comments and that could certainly shake things up a bit, but as I noted in the beginning paragraph, I suspect most of it is baked in.
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 5/28/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 7/10/2020
UUP Daily Chart: We have a nice cup shape developing at the end of a protracted decline. Additionally there is a gap that needs covering. The declining trend in the Dollar really hasn't been broken in a meaningful way yet. The PMO is rising though and the RSI is trying to get into positive territory.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/24/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/8/2019
GOLD Daily Chart: Yesterday's comments still apply:
"I see a bearish descending triangle on both Gold and Gold Miners. However, you could also make a case for a symmetrical triangle on a possible flag pole which is bullish. Right now I'm watching support at 1900 closely. The PMO is turning back up and the RSI has stayed mostly positive. Additionally we are still seeing discounts on PHYS. I think Gold will continue to hold up, but I'll certainly feel better when the declining tops trendline is broken."
Full Disclosure: I own GLD.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: I find it especially bullish when a bearish chart pattern (in this case a descending triangle) resolves to the upside. Miners broke out of their short-term declining trend. Now t watch to see what it does with the mid-August top. Will we develop a trading range? The indicators are very bullish right now, so I suspect it will continue higher.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: SELL as of 9/8/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 2/3/2020
USO Daily Chart: Yesterday I said that I wasn't expecting much out of Oil. Well, a 2%+ rally is something. The RSI is now out of deeply oversold territory and is rising. Momentum hasn't switched positive yet and overhead resistance is very near at $28.
IT Trend Model: Neutral as of 8/27/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/2/2019
TLT Daily Chart: Today we got a PMO BUY signal on TLT. However, I'm not overly bullish here as price is struggling to get above the 20/50-EMAs. Volume was somewhat heavy on today's decline and the RSI has turned down in negative territory.
Full disclosure: I own TLT.
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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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