We had two signal changes in the short term. The NDX had a ST PMO crossover BUY signal kick in. The Dow managed a ST Trend Model BUY signal when the 5-EMA crossed above the 20-EMA. I've included their charts below the DP Scoreboards below.
The NDX continues to impress as it makes more new all-time highs. All of the indicators look healthy with the exception of the PMO which is very overbought. However, as we can currently see, overbought conditions in a bull market configuration can persist.
Quite a contrast with the Dow which has not come close to new all-time highs.
** Announcement **
I am traveling July 1 - July 15. I am writing on the road, but broadcasting will likely be suspended during that time. It's going to be an adventurous road trip for me and my husband. We will be taking a train from Los Angeles to New Orleans, visiting family, checking out retirement areas and then renting a car to make our way back to California with various sightseeing stops along the way. I'll be sure to post a picture or two and I'm sure I'll have funny stories to share along the way. It'll be interesting to see the various stages of the reopening of America. A heads up to Bundle subscribers, the LIVE Trading Room is on hiatus as Mary Ellen will also be out of pocket in the upcoming month. We hope to reopen in late-July. Please direct questions to firstname.lastname@example.org.
DP INDEX SCOREBOARDS:
TODAY'S Broad Market Action:
One WEEK Results:
Top 10 from ETF Tracker:
Bottom 10 from ETF Tracker:
On Friday, the DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. Monday through Thursday the DecisionPoint Alert daily report is abbreviated and covers changes for the day.
Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV's YouTube channel here!
Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
One WEEK Results:
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/8/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/8/2020
SPY Daily Chart: We had a tiny breakout today. I noticed that price managed to close the short-term gap that was formed with the island reversal in early June. The PMO is rising now. Volume is still light likely due to holiday weekend.
Climactic Market Indicators: The VIX almost punctured the upper Bollinger Band. In any case it turned lower on the inverse scale which generally precedes a short-term pullback. There are climactic readings today that have the earmarks of a buying exhaustion.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is BULLISH on the breakout and the condition is OVERBOUGHT. Based upon the STO ranges, market bias is BULLISH. The STOs continue to rise nicely but have entered overbought territory. The %Stocks indicators look very bullish.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The Silver Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 20EMA > 50EMA) is turning up and the Golden Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 50EMA > 200EMA) is rising again. The BPI is nearing a positive crossover.
The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL. With most of the ITBM/ITVM readings since the end of April being above the zero lines, the market bias is BULLISH. We are seeing these indicators rising just like the STOs. The PMO is rising and %Crossover BUY Signals is rising and nearing a positive crossover.
CONCLUSION: The majority of indicators look quite bullish on this breakout, but there is one sticking point for me and that is a VIX that hit the top of the Bollinger Band at the same time we had climactic readings on the Net A-D. I would look for a buying exhaustion which should result in a down day tomorrow or the next day. After that, given the bullishness of ST and IT indicators, I would be looking for higher prices.
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 5/28/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/25/2018
UUP Daily Chart: Thursday's comments still apply:
"The Dollar is now forming a double-top. The PMO is topping and seeing the inability of UUP to stay above the 20-EMA is concerning; in addition to that fact, this is the second time UUP has been unable to challenge overhead resistance at the October top. It is struggling with the November tops right now. I suspect we will see the Dollar continue lower."
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/24/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/8/2019
GOLD Daily Chart: The RSI is positive and though Gold appears to be consolidating sideways, I am looking for a breakout to higher prices given the likely demise of the Dollar.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: Last week I mentioned that I believed that Gold Miners had executed a cup and handle pattern and would be headed higher. There is overhead resistance ahead, but the indicators look positive and support a breakout.
CRUDE OIL ($WTIC)
The oil market is under severe pressure due to a lack of demand, and we do not believe that USO is an appropriate investment vehicle at this time. Until further notice we will use $WTIC to track the oil market. Since this is a continuous contract dataset, it doesn't "play well" with our Trend Models, and we will not report Trend Model signals for oil.
$WTIC Daily Chart: We have a bullish ascending triangle, but price is really struggling to overcome overhead resistance. The RSI looks good, but the PMO is refusing to turn up.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 6/26/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/2/2019
TLT Daily Chart: I opted not to purchase TLT while on vacation, but I still think it looks bullish. I'd like to see the RSI rising and not falling, but it is still located above net neutral. The PMO is rising on a BUY signal. I would want support to hold here at $160 or I wouldn't want it.
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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
Happy Charting! - Erin
Erin's Travel Log:
The train ride across country was beautiful. We barely made the train on time (I thought I'd pass out from running with my bag to get to the platform on time. Gotta love LA traffic (and the insistence of my daughter and I that we stop at Sonic on the way out there...drive-thru line was too long but we figured we'd be fine. Ha!).
The sleeper compartment is very tiny. If you're a bit more than average build, it would be a challenge. You can pull out the bench seat and turn it into a bed just a bit wider than a twin bed, but my husband had to climb into the upper bunk that pulled down. Reminded him of his days in the Navy before he retired. He had to strap himself in to protect him if he fell!
The staff were incredibly nice! They would bring food to our compartment if we wanted. If you moved around the train you had to wear a mask, but once you sat down (more than 6 feet apart), you could take your mask off. One of the big detractors was the time schedule. Apparently passenger trains are lower priority than freight trains so we had to stop quite a bit or slow down in order to allow them through. Consequently after two nights, we ended up in New Orleans 2 1/2 hours late. It was too late to pick up the rental car, so we went to the hotel and picked it up in the morning.
We hit the road for the 4 hour ride up to my Uncle Sonny's house in Lapine, AL (outside of Montgomery) for a 4th of July feast with family. After we ate, we shot some guns from his deck at targets on the acreage he owns. I haven't shot a gun since I was in the AF, so it was very exhilarating. We drove an hour away to my Uncle Allen's lake house. Pictures are below. His neighbors put on a fireworks show in their backyards that rival the ones I've seen in the cities in CA. We finished the night dipping our feet in the warm water off his dock.
My husband was in AL for 5 hours and he was sold on this as our retirement spot. He says he needs to look no further! I have to say I'm totally on board. The lake house is gorgeous and having your own boathouse and dock for fishing would be great. He paid less for this magnificent lake house than we did on our small home and tiny yard in Southern California. It is a stunning difference.
The humidity isn't bad and the temp has been comfortable. What surprised me most was no bugs here at the lake house.
Tomorrow we head out to Ft Walton Beach, FL. It originally was to see if we might want to retire there on the Gulf, but nothing will keep my husband from AL! I'll write more tomorrow!
Crossing the Rio Grande:
Texas from the train:
Alabama at last!
Because I love food:
The dawgs...Princess Diana and Ruby:
Lake Jordan, AL
Erin Swenlin will be presenting at the The MoneyShow Las Vegas August 16 - 20 at Bally's/Paris Resort! You'll have an opportunity to meet Erin and discuss the latest DecisionPoint news and Diamond Scans. Claim your FREE pass here! You can watch online with this pass too!!
NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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