The market gapped up on the open but began to slide lower immediately. Support was established just after lunch. The final bar of the day saw that area of support broken. On a very short-term 10-minute bar chart we can see that there is a rising trend that is holding despite that end of day breakdown. Gap support from yesterday could also hold things together for the SPX. Overall, I never like to see a close on the low for the day on any index or stock.
Live Trading Room - Tuesdays/Thursdays
I'm teaming up with Mary Ellen McGonagle (MEMInvestmentResearch.com) to do regular "LIVE Trading Room" sessions for FREE at 11:00a EST. We've had excellent reviews on our new LIVE Trading Rooms so far and plan on continuing them Tuesdays/Thursdays 11:00a EST. They will ALWAYS be free to DecisionPoint subscribers. They currently are free to all, so tell your colleagues to sign up for our free email list on DecisionPoint.com to be notified!
Here is thelinkfor today's (4/28) live trading room recording.
TODAY'S Broad Market Action:
Past WEEK Results:
Top 10 from ETF Tracker:
Bottom 10 from ETF Tracker:
On Friday, the DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. Monday through Thursday the DecisionPoint Alert daily report is abbreviated and covers changes for the day.
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Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
One WEEK Results:
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 2/28/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 3/19/2020
SPY Daily Chart: The bearish rising wedge is still in play, but if it continues traveling to the apex, the pattern will bust as even a sideways move would be considered a 'breakdown' out of the formation. Typically after 70% of the wedge is filled from bottom to apex, it could be disintegrating. We are just about there, but for now I think it is valid. I noticed an increase in volume on a decline which suggests a continuation to the downside. We also saw a Bollinger Band break on the VIX. An upper Band break usually leads to a very short-term decline. The PMO looks healthy, but the OBV is not. It is showing a negative divergence.
Climactic Market Indicators: I mentioned the VIX and volume above. As far as breadth goes, nothing climactic to decipher.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The ST trend is UP and the market condition is OVERBOUGHT based upon the Swenlin Trading Oscillator (STO) readings. The STOs are now overbought. Given the pesky problems of the OBV and VIX, this could be an issue. They are rising strongly, but notice that the %stocks above 20-EMA and %stocks PMOs rising have ticked downward.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The Silver Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 20EMA > 50EMA) and the Golden Cross Index (percent of SPX stocks 50EMA > 200EMA) are both rising. The BPI looks healthy.
The IT trend is UP and the market condition is NEUTRAL based upon the ITBM and ITVM. I really like the movement of the ITVM and ITBM into positive territory. These indicators are accelerating higher which does give me a bullish bias in the intermediate term.
CONCLUSION: The ST is UP and IT trend is also UP. Market condition based on ST indicators is overbought and based on IT indicators is NEUTRAL. There are short-term bearish indicators and divergences. The bearish rising wedge is still there and price did close a penny off its low for the day. I'm somewhat bearish short-term. I like the IT indicators and they tell me that we shouldn't see a longer-term decline if we do turn back down in the short term.
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IT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/12/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/25/2018
UUP Daily Chart:Yesterday's comments still apply: "I've annotated a symmetrical triangle. These are continuation patterns. That means we should expect it to break in the direction of the previous trend. In this case, that would be down. A top below the signal line on the PMO suggests at least a test of that short-term rising bottoms trend line."
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 12/26/2019
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/8/2019
GOLD Daily Chart: Gold had a small decline today that brought the low slightly above $1700. Price held above the 20-EMA. Unfortunately the configuration of the PMO and the possible bearish double-top that is coming together suggests lower prices. If we get a bounce off this support at at the March tops and the 20-EMA, I'll find that very bullish. For now, it doesn't look like it will hold. We're still seeing premiums which does tell me that interest in Gold is still there.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: Yesterday's comments still apply: "The flag formation executed with a breakaway gap, followed by a continuation gap. I suspect Miners are taking a pause to digest those moves. The indicators are looking healthy. The BPI is overbought which can be a problem, but overall Miners still look good."
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: Neutral as of 1/27/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 2/3/2020
USO Daily Chart: I wonder every day whether Oil can go any lower. It doesn't seem possible and yet, here we are with a 2.74% drop today. As I noted in today's trading room, we aren't even seeing nibbles from bottom fishers. Eventually the tide will begin to turn as demand begins to pick up. I'll be watching this area closely for opportunities to enter.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/22/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/2/2019
TLT Daily Chart: The PMO for TLT was completely unimpressed with today's 1.15% rally. Price is holding support along the 20-EMA, but that double-top is still possibility. I believe the double-top pattern would bust if I saw a short-term upside breakout from the declining trend off that second top.
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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
Happy Charting! - Erin
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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