Today we lost another Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal on the DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard. Health Care (XLV) triggered a Long-Term Trend Model SELL signal when the 50-EMA crossed below the 200-EMA (death cross). XLV rebounded today but interestingly, even after today's trading, XLV is down about 7% this past week. Compare that to Consumer Discretionary (XLY) which is up almost 4% during the same period. I do not see anything on the XLV chart to confirm yesterday's low as a long-term bottom. The small tick to the upside on the OBV today tells that story.
CURRENT BROAD MARKET DP Signals:
TODAY'S Broad Market Action:
Past WEEK Results:
Top 10 from ETF Tracker:
Bottom 10 from ETF Tracker:
On Friday, the DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. Monday through Thursday the DecisionPoint Alert daily report is abbreviated and covers changes for the day.
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Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
One WEEK Results:
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 2/28/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 3/19/2020
SPY Daily Chart: The PMO appears to be in the process of bottoming. A decisive rise on the PMO would be very encouraging, but not yet. The OBV is only confirming the decline.
Climactic Market Indicators: I am noticing some very short-term positive divergences on breadth. I believe this could indicate another day of rally. On the flip side, I do not like the way the VIX finished the day on its high. The push and pull each day in the market does suggest we will see a down day tomorrow.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The ST trend is DOWN and the market condition is NEUTRAL based upon the Swenlin Trading Oscillator (STO) readings. The STOs are showing positive divergences that are intriguing. This could be positive for the short term. The big bump on the %PMOs rising is also positive. We do need to see more stocks closing above their 20-EMAs in order to support even a short-term rally.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The Silver Cross Index (% of SPX stocks 20EMA > 50EMA) and the Golden Cross Index (percent of SPX stocks 50EMA > 200EMA) are declining. Only 2% of SPX stocks have a 20-EMA > 50-EMAs. We are seeing deceleration on the SCI, but that is mainly due to its approach to zero. The GCI is continuing to fall with no deceleration.
The IT trend is DOWN and the market condition is EXTREMELY OVERSOLD based upon all of the readings on the indicators below. Still waiting on these indicators to actually rise. Until they do, I don't see anything to suggest rising prices over the intermediate term.
CONCLUSION: The ST and IT trends are DOWN. Market condition based on ST and IT indicators is VERY OVERSOLD. We are seeing bullish divergences on short-term indicators which could suggest a short-term rally. Under 'normal' conditions I'd be cheering, but we aren't. Bear market rules tell me to expect a bearish conclusion over a bullish one.
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IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/9/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/25/2018
UUP Daily Chart: I still see a flag, but following bear market rules I am not confident in a bullish conclusion. The PMO is still rising strongly but is very overbought. A drop to support at $27 would clear oversold conditions somewhat. Given the very high volume on the last three days of decline, I am looking for a pullback.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 12/26/2019
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/8/2019
GOLD Daily Chart: Impressive move on Gold. Price was stopped at the 1700 resistance level. We have added a correlation of Gold to the SPX. I find it interesting that they are traveling in concert. Generally Gold is a safe haven and causes a reverse correlation. The PMO is very positive and does seem to suggest a breakout above 1700.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: Price resolved the symmetrical triangle in the thumbnail to the upside and price also closed above the 20-EMA. Price will need to get above the 50-EMA in order to avoid a Long-Term Trend Model SELL signal.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: Neutral as of 1/27/2020
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 2/3/2020
USO Daily Chart: So far support is holding. The PMO is decelerating. We need to see it turn up. The OBV on USO isn't encouraging as we still are seeing declining tops and bottoms.
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/22/2020
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/2/2019
TLT Daily Chart: A new PMO BUY signal for TLT arrived today. It is still overbought and highly volatile so while it could suggest a move back to $180, it might be a very choppy trip up there.
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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
Happy Charting! - Erin
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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