Today the U.S. Dollar Index ETF (UUP) 50-day EMA crossed down through the 200-day EMA (Death Cross), generating an IT Trend Model SELL Signal. We will cover this in more detail in the Dollar section below.
The DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the Stock Market, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. The DecisionPoint Alert daily report (Monday through Thursday) is abbreviated and gives updates on the Weekly Wrap assessments.
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MARKET/SPX SECTOR/INDUSTRY GROUP INDEXES
Change Today: 
Change for the Week:
CLICK HERE for Carl's annotated Market Index, Sector, and Industry Group charts.
THE MARKET (S&P 500)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/4/2025
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/29/2023
SPY 10-Minute Chart: The rally was in danger in the morning, but ultimately price found its footing and headed higher. There was a midday hiccup, but ultimately the SPY closed very close to its highs for the day. The rising trend continues.
SPY Daily Chart: Today we saw a breakout from the bear market declining trend and horizontal resistance at the March low. The RSI is back in positive territory and the PMO is rising nicely on a Crossover BUY Signal. It is still well below the zero line, but this does look bullish.
The VIX looks very healthy as it moves higher above its moving average on the inverted scale which bolsters the rally. Stochastics have also managed to get back above 80 indicating internal strength.
SPY Weekly Chart: The bull market rising trendline was compromised, but price did find support at 480 and rallied greatly this week. The weekly PMO did see some deceleration which is encouraging.
New 52-Week Highs/Lows: We're still not seeing a huge amount of New Highs or New Lows. The market is finding its footing with neither New Lows or New Highs appearing. This tells us the market is in a state of equilibrium. The High-Low Differential still looks very bullish, but we note it slowed down a great deal today and remains negative.
Climax Analysis: There were no climax readings today. It was a week full of climaxes though with upside exhaustion climaxes not bearing out to finish the week.
*A climax is a one-day event when market action generates very high readings in, primarily, breadth and volume indicators. We also include the VIX, watching for it to penetrate outside the Bollinger Band envelope. The vertical dotted lines mark climax days -- red for downside climaxes, and green for upside. Climaxes are at their core exhaustion events; however, at price pivots they may be initiating a change of trend.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is UP and the condition is OVERBOUGHT.
The Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) turned back up this week. They have already moved into near-term overbought territory which could pose a problem in the future. One big surprise was that both participation of stocks above their 20-day EMA ticked lower on the rally as did %PMOs Rising. We should've seen expansion on both given the rally.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The intermediate-term market trend is DOWN and the condition is NEUTRAL.
The ITBM and ITVM are both rising with the ITBM reaching positive territory again. We continue to see more PMO BUY Signals entering the market. That indicator is not overbought yet and could rise a bit further given there are more stocks with rising PMOs versus BUY Signals.
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PARTICIPATION TABLES: The following tables summarize participation for the major market indexes and sectors. The 1-Week Change columns inject a dynamic aspect to the presentation. There are three groups: Major Market Indexes, Miscellaneous Industry Groups, and the 11 S&P 500 Sectors.
Only one IT Bias is bullish right now and that is Consumer Staples (XLP). It isn't a strong IT Bias and we note that XLP's chart is showing weakness right now.
This table is sorted by SCI values. This gives a clear picture of strongest to weakest index/sector in terms of intermediate-term participation.
Industrials (XLI) gained an incredible 19 percentage points on the Silver Cross Index this week. This sector is worth a look given its new internal strength appearing. Still it is a low 23% reading right now.
Materials (XLB) lost a huge 22 percentage points on the Silver Cross Index. Beware of this sector given these weak internals.
This table is sorted by GCI values. This gives a clear picture of strongest to weakest index/sector in terms of long-term participation.
100% of Gold Miners hold Golden Crosses. The group is starting to pull back right now, but this is an indication of how strong it is internally. It suggests we'll see a nice move upward when the current pullback is over.
Semiconductors (SMH) are the lowest of the low. They hold no Silver Crosses and only 4% have Golden Crosses. This is beaten down and could see some great improvements if this rally continues. Things get as bad as they're going to get just before a reversal.
PARTICIPATION CHART (S&P 500): The following chart objectively shows the depth and trend of participation for the SPX in two time frames.
- Intermediate-Term - the Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on IT Trend Model BUY signals (20-EMA > 50-EMA). The opposite of the Silver Cross is a "Dark Cross" -- those stocks are, at the very least, in a correction.
- Long-Term - the Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on LT Trend Model BUY signals (50-EMA > 200-EMA). The opposite of a Golden Cross is the "Death Cross" -- those stocks are in a bear market.
The market bias is BULLISH in the intermediate term.
The market bias is BEARISH in the long term.
This week we saw a Bullish Shift on the Silver Cross Index which does bode well for the index. It is near oversold territory so this could mean we are going to see this rally continue. Participation has shot upward on %Stocks > 20EMA and has made great strides in %Stocks > 50EMA. %Stocks > 200EMA still need some help. We did break the declining trend on %Stocks > 20EMA. The Silver Cross Index is above its signal line so the IT Bias is BULLISH. The Golden Cross Index has turned back up which is very hard to do given we have fewer stocks above their 50/200-day EMAs. We see this as a good sign. It is currently below its signal line so the LT Bias is BEARISH.
BIAS Assessment: The following table expresses the current BIAS of various price indexes based upon the relationship of the Silver Cross Index to its 10-day EMA (intermediate-term), and of the Golden Cross Index to its 20-day EMA (long-term). When the Index is above the EMA it is bullish, and it is bearish when the Index is below the EMA. The BIAS does not imply that any particular action should be taken. It is information to be used in the decision process.
The items with highlighted borders indicate that the BIAS changed today.
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CONCLUSION: The short-term picture looks fairly bullish right now. The STOs are rising with the PMO and Stochastics. The Bias Table above shows more and more "Bull" biases. Participation for stocks above their 20-day EMA is very high right now and more PMO BUY Signals are entering the market. We're thinking this rally is credible and could see more upside next week. We still believe the market is highly overvalued and has no business moving higher, but the technicals need to be respected. Next week will bring key earnings by four Magnificent Seven stocks so we'll really get a good sense of where the market will be headed. Disappointing earnings this season would weigh heavy so it'll be interesting to see how these Mag 7 stocks report.
Erin is 10% long, 0% short. (This is intended as information, not a recommendation.)
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CALENDAR
BITCOIN
Bitcoin Daily Chart: We really like Bitcoin right now. This rally out of the declining trend looks very good. We think it is ready to go back and test all-time highs. The RSI is getting a little overbought, but overbought conditions don't tend to bother Bitcoin much (note November). The PMO is very bullish above the zero line as are Stochastics above 80. Look for more upside.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart: After the second parabolic/vertical rally we saw a huge rounded top and price corrected accordingly. The weekly PMO has turned back up. This breakout above horizontal resistance looks enticing.
BITCOIN ETFs
Today:
This Week:
INTEREST RATES
Yields are clearly headed lower. We have double tops on the long-term rates and declining trends popping up on short-term rates for the most part. We think they'll drop further from here.
The Yield Curve Chart from StockCharts.com shows us the inversions taking place. The red line should move higher from left to right. Inversions are occurring where it moves downward.
10-YEAR T-BOND YIELD
It's not textbook, but we see what could be a large double top on $TNX. The RSI just moved into negative territory and the PMO has topped. Stochastics are also headed lower. If it is a double top, it has been confirmed with a drop beneath the confirmation line today. It should continue lower.
10-Year Bond Yield Weekly Chart: The yield is in a sideways trading range and we think it is ready to go down to test the bottom of the range. The weekly PMO has topped beneath the signal line which is especially bearish.
MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES (30-Yr)**
**We watch the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate, because, for the most part, people buy homes based upon the maximum monthly payment they can afford. As rates rise, a fixed monthly payment will carry a smaller mortgage amount, which shuts many buyers out of the market, and potential sellers will experience pressure to lower prices (to no effect so far).
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This week the 30-Year Fixed Rate changed from 6.83 to 6.81.
Here is a 50-year chart for better perspective.
BONDS (TLT)
IT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/14/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 12/13/2024
TLT Daily Chart: With yields bearish, Bond funds have been enjoying a nice rally and we think that will continue. The RSI is now in positive territory and the PMO is rising toward a Crossover BUY Signal. Stochastics are also rising. You can see the double top on the 20-year yield implying it will decline further which will of course help TLT move higher from here.
We have a bullish double bottom pattern that has been confirmed. The upside target would take it close to 92.
TLT Weekly Chart: It appears we're going to rally off the rising bottoms trendline even though it is part of a bearish rising wedge. We checked, the weekly PMO did turn up this week which also bolsters our opinion of Bonds.
DOLLAR (UUP)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/5/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/25/2025
UUP Daily Chart: As noted in the opening, the Dollar saw a Death Cross today. It may've arrived late to the party and UUP is beginning to rally again. It isn't an impressive rally. The PMO still hasn't made up its mind if it wants to turn up or not. At least Stochastics are rising so we'll look for a little more upside for the Dollar.
It has reversed higher before testing support which is bullish.
UUP Weekly Chart: It looks pretty bad for the Dollar on the weekly chart which is why we can't get especially bullish. We have lost long-term rising bottoms support and horizontal support at the 2022 top. The weekly PMO is headed straight down right now. This looks like a decent rally on the daily chart but given this negative weekly chart, we think any rally will be short lived.
GOLD
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 12/23/2024
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 10/20/2023
GLD Daily Chart: Gold ran too hot and this week pulled back. This was constructive as it took the RSI out of overbought territory. The PMO has topped though so we may see more weakness ahead. The Dollar looks like it may rally further and that will put downside pressure on Gold. We don't think this pullback is done yet. When it is, that will be the time to look for another move to all-time highs.
Discounts have hit bearish extremes which is good for Gold. However, it may take a little more time before we get the desired result of more rally especially if the Dollar continues to inch higher. The correlation between Gold and the Dollar is back to its strong inverse so it will be especially prudent to observe the Dollar's direction.
GLD Weekly Chart: We are seeing another parabolic rally on Gold and parabolic advances beg for a correction. We think the fundamentals are very strong for Gold so we aren't looking for a dastardly decline, maybe something similar to the last parabolic breakdown which was mostly sideways consolidation. The weekly PMO is very bullish. Discounts are quite elevated, but we can see that they can get even higher.
GOLD MINERS Daily Chart: Gold Miners have pulled back to support, but we don't think it will hold. Gold has weakened and Gold Miners were already weakening. We lost a lot of participation on %Stocks > 20EMA which is short-term bearish. The foundation is still fairly strong, but given the falling PMO we expect it to test the next level of support at the 50-day EMA and possibly 43.00.
GDX Weekly Chart: They are on a nearly vertical rally that definitely calls for a correction. The 44.00 level looks like its best line of defense right now. Given we don't think Gold will decline that much longer, that would be a good place to look for a reversal or possible entry.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 2/27/2025
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/31/2025
USO Daily Chart: Crude is stuck beneath a resistance zone that held up all week. This does look like a possible bull flag so we can't completely count out Crude Oil's ability to rally above it. The PMO is rising on a Crossover BUY Signal, but it is still rather flat below the zero line so we don't think there is new strength here, more likely diminishing weakness. Stochastics are rising, but slowly. We suspect price to turn away from this resistance level and maybe build up the flag.
USO/$WTIC Weekly Chart: Crude is bouncing off strong support within a long-term trading range. It does appear ready to head back up to the top of range, but the weekly PMO has entered negative territory and is falling so we don't think it will make it back up there anytime soon.
Good Luck & Good Trading!
Erin Swenlin and Carl Swenlin
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin
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