AAPL seems to have made a double bottom, rallying modestly off support today. We can see that price also found support at this level last Fall. There is a line of resistance at about 179, which will also be the confirmation line for the double bottom. Minimum upside target would be about 190. Note that the IT Trend Model is NEUTRAL and the LT Trend Model is on a SELL Signal. We still think AAPL is in for trouble in the long term, primarily because of its involvement with China, but there may be a short-term trade to be had.
The weekly chart shows AAPL in a huge rising wedge, which we normally expect to resolve downward.
The DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the Stock Market, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. The DecisionPoint Alert daily report (Monday through Thursday) is abbreviated and gives updates on the Weekly Wrap assessments.
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MARKET/INDUSTRY GROUP/SECTOR INDEXES
CLICK HERE for Carl's annotated Market Index, Sector, and Industry Group charts.
THE MARKET (S&P 500)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 11/14/2023
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/29/2023
SPY Daily Chart: The market remains within inches of all-time highs.
The rising wedge still supports price.
Here is the latest recording from 4/1/2024:
S&P 500 New 52-Week Highs/Lows: The histogram still reflects bullish conditions.
Climax* Analysis: There were no climax readings today. Yesterday's downside initiation climax has been followed by a small bounce.
*A climax is a one-day event when market action generates very high readings in, primarily, breadth and volume indicators. We also include the VIX, watching for it to penetrate outside the Bollinger Band envelope. The vertical dotted lines mark climax days -- red for downside climaxes, and green for upside. Climaxes are at their core exhaustion events; however, at price pivots they may be initiating a change of trend.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is still UP and the condition is NEUTRAL.
All these indicators contracted again today.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is OVERBOUGHT.
The ITBM and ITVM have topped, and we're waiting for a downside result from the negative divergences.
PARTICIPATION: The following chart objectively shows the depth and trend of participation in two time frames.
- Intermediate-Term - the Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on IT Trend Model BUY signals (20-EMA > 50-EMA). The opposite of the Silver Cross is a "Dark Cross" -- those stocks are, at the very least, in a correction.
- Long-Term - the Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on LT Trend Model BUY signals (50-EMA > 200-EMA). The opposite of a Golden Cross is the "Death Cross" -- those stocks are in a bear market.
The market bias is BULLISH in all three timeframes.
We're looking for participation to begin to deteriorate.
BIAS Assessment: The following table expresses the current BIAS of various price indexes based upon the relationship of the Silver Cross Index to its 10-day EMA (intermediate-term), and of the Golden Cross Index to its 20-day EMA (long-term). When the Index is above the EMA it is bullish, and it is bearish when the Index is below the EMA. The BIAS does not imply that any particular action should be taken. It is information to be used in the decision process.
The items with highlighted borders indicate that the BIAS changed today.
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CONCLUSION: We got a small bounce today after yesterday's downside initiation climax. The market (SPY) is less than one percent below all-time highs, and participation is excellent; however, the STO-B, STO-V, ITBM, and ITVM negative divergences warn that we could see lower prices soon.
Erin is 75% long, 0% short.
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BITCOIN
The rising trend was broken today. Possibly, difficulty in the stock market is splashing on cryptos.
BITCOIN ETFs
INTEREST RATES
We believe that yields will remain in the trading range set from late-2022 to present.
The Yield Curve Chart from StockCharts.com shows us the inversions taking place. The red line should move higher from left to right. Inversions are occurring where it moves downward.
10-YEAR T-BOND YIELD
The 10-Year Yield struggling with the double top resistance line.
BONDS (TLT)
IT Trend Model: SELL as of 3/20/2024
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 1/19/2022
TLT Daily Chart: Bonds are still holding on support.
DOLLAR (UUP)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/23/2024
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/25/2023
UUP Daily Chart: UUP was up on Monday because the Swiss National Bank cut rates, which resulted in a positive outlook on the Dollar because our Fed is still holding off rate cuts. Today the positive effect of the news evaporated.
Monday's breakout has been lost.
GOLD
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 10/23/2023
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 10/20/2023
GLD Daily Chart: Gold continues make all-time highs. Today the Dollar dipped and gave Gold an extra boost.
GLD Daily Chart: Gold has gone parabolic in the very short term. At some point we should expect should expect the angle of ascent to be mitigated with a pullback or a sideways consolidation, like there was in March.
GOLD MINERS Golden and Silver Cross Indexes: Yesterday GDX stalled at resistance. But today it pressed ahead strongly. We have proposed a possible rising trend channel.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 2/12/2024
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 2/27/2024
USO Daily Chart: Today's candlestick is a shooting star, which is short-term bearish.
Another line of resistance has been reached.
Good Luck & Good Trading!
Erin Swenlin and Carl Swenlin
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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