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www.toddmarketforecast.com
Todd Market Forecast for Wednesday November 18, 2009
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.
DOW - 11 on 350 net declines
NASDAQ COMP. - 11 on 600 net declines
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish
Approximately 94% of Q3 earnings have been reported and year over year,
the profits have dropped 14%. However, analysts were expecting a 25%
drop so earnings were better than expected again and that was no doubt
one reason for the buoyancy of stocks. Today we dropped back a bit. The
headline story was that housing starts and building permits were
disappointing. We thought it was interesting that the market rose
yesterday in spite of a rise in the dollar. Today it dropped while the
greenback also dropped. Could the tight link be dissolving? Stay tuned.
Take a look at the chart below. The rally from late October, early
November has now progressed about as much as previous rallies from
early September and early October. However, the market is overbought
and the advance decline line is not keeping pace. We'll need to keep a
close eye on the tape over the next few days. The dollar retreated
today along with the bond market, but gold, silver copper and crude oil
managed a gain.
BOTTOM LINE:
Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
System 2 traders are in cash. Stay there on Thursday.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
Consumer prices rose 0.3% in October which was more than the expected
0.2% and the rise of 0.2% in September. Housing starts were 529,000
annualized. The consensus was 600,000. Building permits were 552,000.
the expectation was for a reading of 580,000. Crude oil supplies were
down 900,000 barrels. Last week they rose 1.8 million barrels. On
Thursday we get the Philly Fed, jobless claims and the leading
indicators.
OTHER MARKETS
We're on a buy for bonds as of November 16.
We're on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the Euro as of Oct. 29.
We're on a buy for gold as of Oct. 29
We're on a buy for silver as of Oct. 29.
We're on a buy for Copper as of Oct. 29
We're on a buy for crude as of Oct. 29
We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those
of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.
STEPHEN TODD
A SHORT BIOGRAPHY
Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock
market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.
Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following
publications: Barron's, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The
National Educator, and others.
His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC,
Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW
in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto,
Ontario.
RANKED # 1 BY TIMER DIGEST
Timer Digest of Greenwich, CT monitors and ranks over 100 of the
nation's best known advisory services. If you have heard of an advisor,
it is likely that he or she is monitored and ranked by Timer Digest.
Once per year, in January, Timer Digest editor Jim Schmidt gives the
rankings for all services monitored for multi year time frames. We were
ranked # 1 for the past ten years at the end of 2003, 2004 and
2005. At the end of 2006 we slipped to #3 and at the end of 2007, we
were ranked # 5.
TODD MARKET FORECAST P.O. Box 4131 Crestline, CA 92325-4131
www.toddmarketforecast.com
e mail - toddmarketforecast@charter.net
phone 909 338 - 8354
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