November 18, 2009

tim@ord-oracle.com

www.ord-oracle.com

For 30 to 90 days horizons: Short SPX on 5/13/09 at 883.92.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF= long GLD at 89 on 4/24/09, Sold 8/14/09 at 93.78 gain 5.4%.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
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The Pattern forming is a “Bearish Rising Expanding Wedge” which is an intermediate term bearish pattern. How long can this pattern continue forming higher highs and higher lows is the question. This is option expiration week and may put extra energy in market moves. There is a chance that the market is heading to its 50% retracement of the bear market decline which comes in near 112 range on SPY. Normally bear market declines stop at the 50% retracement level. Since the decline into the November low took out the lower trend line with volume it suggest that low will be exceeded at some point. The decline into the November low came on increase volume and the rally from that low came on decreasing volume and suggests there is more energy pushing down then up. This is option expiration week and the market may close at a nice round number such as 110 on the SPY and 1100 on SPX. We are short the SPX at 883.92.

Above is the Bank index ($BKX). We have drawn a blue trend line connecting the lows of August, September and October near the 44.50 range. This trend line was broken in early October and the RSI pushed down to 30 range confirming the break down. Normally when a trend line is broke it will provide resistance on the rally back to it and at the same time the RSI should find resistance near 50. BKX is back near trend line resistance and RSI is back near 50 resistances. Also notice that BKX produced an Elliott Wave five count down and is current in an ABC up and finishing the “C” leg now. Once the “C” leg is complete then another Elliott Wave five count down should start that should not travel less then 8 BKX point down (Which is equal to the first leg down from the October high) which gives a minimum target to 37. However we believe it could reach the July low near 33 on BKX which equates to 11 on XLF. It looks as though the banks may have seen their high. We are short XLF at 14.30.

We showed this weekly Gold ETF (GLD) chart on Monday and says a lot on the weekly time frame. The second window from the bottom is the weekly Slow Stochastics and the top window is the weekly RSI. When the weekly RSI reaches over 70 (Today’s reading is 77.81) and at the same time the weekly Slow stochastics (parameters of 89,3 with an RSI of 7) reach over 80 (today’s reading is 88.32) then the market took a rest from its upswing and either consolidated or had a decent pull back that last several weeks. In most cases GLD had a decent pull back. Not sure what type of consolidation may occur here but the odds suggest that the current uptrend should stall around here. This chart dates back to late 2000 and takes in the entire Bull Run on GLD. Strong support lies at the neckline of the Head and Shoulder bottom near 97 and would be an ideal spot for purchases but not sure it will get that low. We are looking for a time to add to and create new gold stocks positions but the statistics suggests there would be a better time later down the road.
long GLD at 89 on 4/24/09, Sold 8/14/09 at 93.78 gain 5.4%.Long KRY at 1.82 on 2/5/08. We are long PLM at 2.77 on 1/22/08. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7 (doubled our position on 9/12/08 at 1.46, Sold 5/13/09 at 1.55=6% gain). Bought NXG at 3.26 on 6/4/07. We doubled our positions in KGC on (7/30/04) at 5.26 and we now have average price at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.