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New Decision Point Blog
by Carl Swenlin
March 5, 2010
Almost four years ago I decided to retire from writing the Decision Point Alert newsletter. Since that time, I have been publishing weekly comments in the Chart Spotlight area, but I have grown to be dissatisfied with certain aspects of that effort. First, it occurs to me that we are giving too much away to non-subscribers, and, second, I have felt a need to cover more than one subject (stocks, gold, oil, bonds, and the dollar) to the extent that we keep our subscribers up-to-date on our current outlook on those subjects.
After much consideration, I have decided to start a blog for subscribers. One of the things that prompted this decision is the ease with which we can publish, using typepad.com blog software. Another aspect of the decision is that I am not planning to do a full-blown weekly commentary, just make short comments when I think it is appropriate. It will be a lot like the Chart Spotlight articles, but covering more subjects.
The blog will be included in your Decision Point subscription at no extra charge.
The plan is that I will post a weekly blog on Fridays (beginning 3/5/2010), and Erin will be making daily postings Monday through Thursday.
This will be a one-way blog, which means that the reader comments function will not be activated. I'm sure that it would be more interesting to have reader comments, but the maintenance required is too much of a time sink. I ran a message board on AOL for many years, and, while it was fun at the time, I am fully burned out for such activities. Never again. The idea is to convey information I think you should have, while at the same time not putting too big a dent in my semi-retired status.
I think it will make a huge difference in the value you receive as a subscriber.
To clarify, the Chart Spotlight pages are not the actual blog. We will continue to post articles to Chart Spotlight, which in most cases, will be excerpts from the blog. See below for the subscriber's menu location of the blog link.
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Looking at the S&P 500, a new Thrust/Trend buy signal was generated on Monday, changing from a neutral stance. Specifically, the signal was generated by the PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) and PBI (Percent Buy Index) crossing up through their EMAs. The Thrust Component signal was confirmed later this week when the upside 20/50-EMA crossover occurred.
The Dow generated a buy the previous trading day, and we are now left with only the Nasdaq 100 still on neutral, needing a PBI crossover to occur. As you can see, this will most certainly happen by today's market close. Note that the 20/50-EMA crossover has already taken place.
Bottom Line: Most of the indexes and sectors we track are generating buy signals after having been in neutral for about six weeks of market correction and rebound.
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MECHANICAL MODELS
We rely on our mechanical trend models to determine our market posture. Below is a recent snapshot of our primary trend-following timing model status for the major indexes and sectors we track. Note that we have included the nine Rydex Equal Weight ETF versions of the S&P Spider Sectors. This may seem redundant, but the equal weighted indexes most often do not perform the same as their cap-weighted counterparts, and they provide a way to diversify exposure. Daily tracking of these signals is available to subscribers in the Decision Point Alert Daily Report.
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Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Be prepared to adjust your tactics and strategy if conditions change.
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2009 TIMER DIGEST RANKINGS FOR DECISION POINT
#9 Intermediate-Term Stocks (52-Weeks) (TD Index 129.36 Vs. SPX 123.45)
#8 Intermediate-Term Stocks (5 Years) (TD Index 147.81 Vs. SPX 92.01)
#18 Bond Timer (*TD Index: 87.7 Vs. Bonds 83.86)
#5 Bond Timer (10-Years) (*TD Index: 127.25 Vs. Bonds 127.51)
#9 Gold Timer (TD Index: 115.30 Vs. Gold 124.00)
#3 Gold Timer (3 Years) (TD Index: 181.56 Vs. Gold 169.92)
#3 Gold Timer (10 Years) (TD Index: 322.74 Vs. Gold 375.51)
#6 Long-Term Timer (2 Years) Stocks (TD Index 136.41 Vs. SPX 75.94)
#7 Long-Term Timer (3 Years) Stocks (TD Index 141.22 Vs. SPX 78.62)
#2 Long-Term Timer (5 Years) Stocks (TD Index 165.27 Vs. SPX 92.01)
#5 Long-Term Timer (10 Years) Stocks (TD Index 162.51 Vs. SPX 75.90)
2008 TIMER DIGEST RANKINGS FOR DECISION POINT
#17 Intermediate-Term Stocks (52-Weeks) (TD Index 111.9 Vs. SPX 61.51)
#4 Bond Timer (*TD Index: 112.32 Vs. Bonds 118.26)
#5 Gold Timer (TD Index: 126.33 Vs. Gold 104.61)
#9 Long-Term Timer (2 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 132.35 Vs. SPX 63.69)
#2 Long-Term Timer (3 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 150.38 Vs. SPX 72.36)
#2 Long-Term Timer (5 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 168.82 Vs. SPX 81.23)
#3 Long-Term Timer (10 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 159.36 Vs. SPX 73.48)
2007 TIMER DIGEST RANKINGS FOR DECISION POINT
#40 Intermediate-Term Stocks (52-Weeks) (TD Index 91.9 Vs. SPX 103.28)
#5 Bond Timer (TD Index: 105.85 Bonds 104.39)
#2 (Tied) Long-Term Timer (2 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 117.63 Vs. SPX 117.63)
2006 TIMER DIGEST RANKINGS FOR DECISION POINT
#11 Intermediate-Term Stocks (52-Weeks) (TD Index 111.3 Vs. SPX 113.6)
#3 Bond Timer (TD Index: 112.32 Vs. Bonds 97.46)
2000 TIMER DIGEST GOLD TIMER of the YEAR
*All timers and the benchmark index are assigned a starting TD Index of 100 at the beginning of the year. The amount above or below the starting index indicates the percentage gain or loss for the year.
Beginning in 2006 we began using mechanical models -- the Trend Model for Bonds, Gold, and Long-Term Stocks, and the Thrust/Trend Model for Intermediate-Term Stocks. Prior to 2006 we used discretionary signals.
Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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BIO: Carl Swenlin is a self-taught technical analyst, who has been involved in market analysis since 1981. A pioneer in the creation of online technical resources, he is president and founder of DecisionPoint.com, a premier technical analysis website specializing in stock market indicators, charting, and focused research reports. Mr. Swenlin is a Member of the Market Technicians Association.
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