Gold: Long-Term Picture Looking Shaky
by Carl Swenlin

On Thursday our trend model for gold switched to a buy, which means our medium-term posture is bullish on gold; however, when I looked at a very long-term chart of gold I saw something that gave me a slightly queasy feeling. What I saw was that gold is forming a pattern now that has very similar dynamics to the one that preceded gold's crash in the early 1980s. Note the huge parabolic blowoff top in 1980, followed by a failed rally top, followed by the crash.

While the current pattern is not as exaggerated as the earlier one, the dynamics are the same -- a blowoff top, followed by a rally that has so far stalled below the previous top. To be objective, we must acknowledge that the rising trend line is still intact, but the similarity between the two patterns should keep us on edge until the current pattern is resolved.

One of the factors that will have a strong influence on the future price of gold is the strength or weakness of the dollar. On the chart below we can see that the U.S. Dollar Index is challenging major long-term support. If it breaks down through that support it will be great news for gold, but, if the dollar rallies off the support, we should expect to see gold break down through its rising trend line.

Bottom Line: The outlook on gold is positive at the moment, but there are technical and fundamental issues that could result in a nasty downturn for gold. If this happens, I would expect the support at $500 to be challenged. It appears to me that this situation should be resolved in a matter of weeks.

Regardless of my personal opinion, we rely on the mechanical trend models to determine our market posture. Below is a recent snapshot of our primary trend-following timing model status for the major indexes and sectors we track. Note that we have added the nine Rydex Equal Weight ETF versions of the S&P Spider Sectors. This may seem redundant, but the equal weighted indexes most often do not perform the same as their cap-weighted counterparts.

Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Be prepared to adjust your tactics and strategy if conditions change.

BIO: Carl Swenlin is a self-taught technical analyst, who has been involved in market analysis since 1981. A pioneer in the creation of online technical resources, he is president and founder of DecisionPoint.com, a premier technical analysis website specializing in stock market indicators, charting, and focused research reports. Mr. Swenlin is a Member of the Market Technicians Association.